***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.9 5.8 8.8 56.9 37.8 33.2 4.8 9.2 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.5 7.6 9.6 65.2 43.8 37.2 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.8 7.9 8.4 56.6 37.1 33.0 6.9 11.6 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 10.3 10.1 7.4 41.1 26.3 24.7 12.2 18.1 25.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 8.5 8.6 7.8 46.9 30.9 28.5 9.0 13.5 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 7.4 8.7 9.8 54.5 33.4 30.6 8.6 13.1 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 5.2 6.7 9.0 59.5 39.4 33.8 5.5 9.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 15.2 17.2 11.3 58.8 35.9 33.2 16.2 22.2 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 6.1 7.1 9.0 55.6 35.7 32.5 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.0 10.3 11.4 60.5 37.4 34.1 9.1 14.3 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 7.6 7.8 7.9 46.7 30.9 28.8 8.2 12.7 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 7.4 7.7 8.5 50.0 31.4 29.4 8.1 12.8 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 6.7 7.3 9.0 49.4 31.4 29.0 7.8 13.2 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 18.5 14.5 14.0 74.3 47.8 42.0 9.7 15.2 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 4.7 4.7 5.7 36.9 27.6 24.6 5.9 10.5 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 7.4 7.2 7.9 46.4 29.5 27.7 8.2 13.1 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.6 7.0 9.9 67.8 45.4 38.8 4.4 8.2 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.6 11.0 13.7 70.9 43.5 39.0 8.6 12.6 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.6 8.0 9.7 65.3 43.9 37.5 5.2 10.0 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.5 10.6 14.8 71.3 45.2 40.5 7.6 11.8 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 6.2 7.6 8.7 55.5 36.2 32.1 6.9 10.9 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.6 8.6 10.0 68.0 45.9 38.8 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.0 9.1 9.9 65.2 43.4 37.6 6.4 11.0 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.9 9.2 11.6 67.4 42.9 37.9 6.5 11.5 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 5.5 6.0 8.3 46.6 30.9 27.8 6.5 11.3 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 7.4 8.0 8.5 48.8 29.1 27.2 8.9 13.2 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 6.1 7.2 8.9 53.1 34.8 30.8 6.7 12.1 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 6.3 5.8 6.8 39.7 26.2 24.9 7.5 12.5 19.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.7 17.2 14.9 76.5 47.7 42.6 12.0 18.1 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.8 6.0 8.9 60.5 40.4 35.1 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------