***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 6.0 14.5 16.3 95.7 60.0 49.9 5.4 10.5 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.4 13.5 15.8 107.2 65.0 53.4 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.1 16.4 17.7 104.6 63.8 53.7 5.8 10.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.4 19.1 18.8 99.9 62.0 51.4 9.0 14.3 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.8 16.9 91.6 58.4 48.3 6.2 11.5 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.9 14.0 19.5 97.8 58.8 50.4 7.2 11.4 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.9 15.4 16.7 115.3 68.0 55.7 4.9 9.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 15.9 25.0 18.2 94.2 59.0 49.5 16.0 21.6 28.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.6 15.0 18.0 96.9 60.8 51.0 5.5 10.5 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.7 19.0 95.9 60.3 50.3 7.4 12.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.6 15.2 17.3 92.3 58.1 48.0 7.2 12.2 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.6 15.1 16.8 93.6 58.4 49.0 8.5 12.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.8 18.3 97.1 59.9 50.6 8.6 13.9 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.1 18.6 22.3 109.4 65.5 55.3 6.6 11.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.4 15.0 17.1 95.4 60.6 48.9 6.7 11.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.7 16.5 18.1 98.6 60.7 50.9 7.7 12.6 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.8 14.8 15.8 110.2 66.3 54.3 4.8 8.9 14.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.9 17.4 21.0 100.7 61.8 51.8 7.7 12.7 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.0 15.4 16.8 109.0 65.7 54.1 5.5 9.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.6 21.4 97.9 59.7 50.0 6.6 11.2 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.1 16.4 91.5 58.3 48.9 5.9 10.3 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.9 14.3 17.6 116.3 68.3 55.5 4.4 8.2 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.8 13.3 18.5 112.9 66.9 55.3 4.4 8.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.3 19.0 20.5 105.2 63.7 53.6 6.5 12.2 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.5 14.5 18.0 94.8 59.6 49.0 4.8 10.1 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.7 11.8 17.4 91.3 56.3 48.6 5.4 9.7 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.6 15.0 18.0 100.0 61.5 50.6 5.1 10.2 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.5 17.6 97.0 61.0 50.2 5.4 9.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.3 20.8 22.0 101.4 61.6 52.1 8.8 15.2 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.7 12.9 16.7 108.8 65.5 54.0 4.1 7.8 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------