***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.4 15.7 96.8 61.1 48.7 4.2 7.0 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.7 7.7 14.7 108.0 65.6 52.7 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.8 8.8 14.7 94.2 60.1 47.5 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.1 10.9 15.9 87.3 56.8 44.3 5.3 9.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.0 7.2 15.0 84.6 55.7 43.4 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.2 9.1 18.1 87.5 55.2 45.0 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.4 7.7 14.5 105.6 64.7 50.7 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 9.1 15.4 15.8 82.8 53.3 43.4 9.3 14.4 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.8 7.8 15.4 82.9 54.6 43.4 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.5 8.7 16.7 82.3 53.0 42.9 4.3 7.8 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.3 7.9 14.7 87.8 57.1 45.4 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.5 9.5 14.5 85.1 55.2 44.5 4.6 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.7 8.4 16.6 86.1 54.9 43.7 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.4 10.4 16.4 80.9 53.2 42.7 5.4 9.4 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.9 8.4 14.7 88.3 58.1 43.4 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.1 9.0 15.2 86.1 55.9 44.3 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.4 8.2 13.3 98.9 62.4 51.1 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.3 9.2 17.4 80.7 51.7 42.3 4.7 8.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.4 8.3 14.8 104.6 64.3 51.5 3.3 5.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.1 17.7 82.4 52.4 42.9 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.2 6.7 14.2 84.3 55.7 43.9 3.3 5.7 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.8 13.6 92.7 59.6 49.5 2.3 4.9 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.3 14.8 97.7 61.7 48.3 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.5 8.6 15.9 83.1 53.8 43.6 4.3 7.7 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.8 16.8 92.3 59.2 46.8 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.0 8.0 14.5 82.2 53.3 42.0 4.1 7.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.7 16.9 98.0 61.5 48.9 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 3.0 8.2 15.2 85.7 56.3 43.8 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.8 13.6 17.6 82.4 52.4 42.7 7.4 12.6 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.0 8.3 15.1 105.9 64.8 51.2 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------