***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.3 8.2 19.3 106.9 64.7 52.6 3.0 5.4 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.3 15.5 94.4 59.9 49.3 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.2 18.0 103.7 63.6 51.8 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.9 18.4 19.9 104.9 64.1 51.1 7.1 12.5 19.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.7 10.2 18.8 104.1 63.8 51.6 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 5.6 12.8 20.7 98.8 60.2 49.0 5.3 9.4 15.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.6 15.4 92.4 59.1 48.6 3.6 7.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 23.8 25.8 20.2 101.2 61.4 50.5 11.0 18.9 29.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.6 18.8 99.6 62.1 50.0 4.4 8.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.8 21.0 99.2 60.9 50.3 5.3 9.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.9 17.6 102.8 63.0 51.0 4.5 8.2 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.2 14.7 17.9 103.6 62.9 50.9 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.7 12.3 19.6 99.0 60.8 49.8 5.7 9.4 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.9 22.0 96.9 60.5 51.5 5.3 10.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.4 10.4 18.3 105.7 65.4 50.0 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.2 18.5 102.4 62.8 50.4 4.7 8.0 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.3 15.2 93.3 60.4 49.0 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 15.1 23.6 102.3 62.0 52.0 5.5 10.3 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.4 16.0 95.2 60.2 49.8 4.0 8.0 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.1 14.3 23.3 99.5 60.5 50.8 6.2 10.7 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.7 10.1 18.5 105.3 64.4 51.0 3.9 6.7 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.7 16.4 98.3 62.0 50.6 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.5 12.0 16.9 95.0 60.3 50.7 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.1 14.2 21.4 104.1 63.4 53.0 4.7 9.1 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.8 11.4 21.1 105.7 64.1 51.4 3.9 7.3 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.0 11.3 17.9 98.6 61.2 50.2 5.0 8.4 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.8 20.3 104.3 63.5 51.4 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.8 10.4 19.4 106.9 65.2 51.0 3.9 6.8 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 15.7 17.9 23.7 102.8 62.2 51.9 6.8 12.4 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.3 16.7 99.2 61.6 50.7 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------