***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 8.6 10.7 11.9 4.1 95.6 92.0 6.2 7.1 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 8.5 11.0 11.2 3.8 95.7 92.1 5.4 6.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 10.4 13.0 11.9 3.9 96.2 92.9 7.3 8.4 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 4.9 7.4 9.1 3.9 95.6 91.8 2.0 3.1 4.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 7.1 9.5 9.8 4.0 96.0 92.7 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 6.1 8.3 7.4 4.0 97.2 93.9 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 8.4 10.7 11.4 3.9 96.1 92.4 5.7 6.7 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 0.7 3.3 7.4 4.0 97.0 93.7 -2.0 -1.0 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 7.6 9.8 9.8 3.7 96.2 93.0 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 7.8 9.9 8.3 3.9 96.5 93.2 5.2 6.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 7.6 10.0 9.2 3.9 97.2 94.2 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 6.1 8.5 8.4 4.1 97.4 94.4 3.7 4.6 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 7.3 9.5 8.0 3.8 96.7 93.3 4.7 5.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 8.2 10.3 9.5 3.6 95.5 92.3 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 8.5 10.5 10.2 3.7 96.3 93.1 6.1 7.0 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 8.3 10.9 8.7 4.0 97.0 93.8 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 8.6 10.9 11.0 3.7 95.7 92.2 5.8 6.8 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 5.7 7.7 7.9 4.0 96.5 93.1 3.4 4.2 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 8.3 10.5 11.2 3.7 95.7 92.2 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 2.9 4.9 6.0 4.1 96.0 92.6 0.6 1.4 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 7.9 10.2 11.2 3.8 95.9 92.6 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 7.7 9.8 10.8 3.6 95.5 92.2 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 7.8 10.0 11.1 3.8 96.0 93.0 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 7.7 10.0 9.7 3.8 96.4 93.2 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 8.1 10.3 11.0 4.1 94.8 91.1 5.2 6.3 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 6.9 9.1 7.5 3.9 96.4 92.7 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 8.8 11.4 11.6 4.1 95.3 91.4 5.5 6.7 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 6.7 8.8 9.5 3.9 96.2 92.8 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 5.2 7.7 7.2 3.9 96.1 92.8 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 8.5 10.9 11.5 3.9 95.9 92.2 5.7 6.8 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------