***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.3 10.4 1.0 69.3 61.2 8.0 9.1 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.1 10.0 1.0 69.6 61.5 7.1 8.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 11.7 11.8 10.4 1.1 70.6 63.0 8.9 10.2 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.7 7.7 1.1 71.3 64.7 3.5 4.9 6.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 8.3 8.5 8.0 1.1 71.5 65.0 5.8 7.0 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.6 6.8 5.9 1.2 72.6 65.9 4.6 5.6 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.0 10.1 10.1 1.1 70.6 61.8 7.2 8.5 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 1.8 2.3 6.0 1.2 73.8 66.6 -0.7 0.5 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 8.9 9.1 8.3 1.1 72.2 65.3 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 8.8 9.1 6.9 1.2 73.3 66.3 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 8.1 8.4 7.4 1.2 73.4 66.5 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.8 6.7 1.2 74.4 66.8 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 7.7 7.9 6.1 1.1 72.1 65.4 5.8 6.7 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 9.4 9.6 8.3 1.1 71.8 65.0 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 9.2 9.5 8.8 1.1 71.5 65.0 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 9.3 9.5 6.8 1.1 72.6 66.0 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 9.2 10.1 9.9 1.1 69.9 61.8 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 6.9 7.2 6.4 1.2 74.0 67.3 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.8 10.0 1.0 69.8 62.1 7.1 8.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 3.5 4.0 4.2 1.3 75.0 68.3 1.5 2.5 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 8.9 9.0 9.7 1.1 70.2 63.1 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.4 9.2 9.7 1.0 69.1 61.7 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 9.3 9.5 9.9 1.0 71.0 63.5 6.9 8.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 8.8 8.9 8.1 1.1 72.1 65.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.5 8.9 0.9 67.1 60.2 6.8 8.1 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 7.5 7.7 5.8 1.1 72.4 65.5 5.8 6.6 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.2 10.4 9.8 1.0 68.9 60.9 7.0 8.6 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 7.3 7.6 8.0 1.1 72.0 65.4 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 6.4 6.9 5.8 1.3 74.5 67.9 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.2 10.3 10.2 1.1 70.2 61.9 7.2 8.6 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------