***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 8.7 9.9 10.4 -0.1 48.5 48.7 8.9 10.0 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.7 10.0 -0.1 47.6 47.7 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.6 10.6 0.0 50.1 49.9 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.1 6.5 8.0 0.2 53.5 52.9 5.3 6.3 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.5 8.2 0.2 54.1 53.8 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.5 6.2 0.5 59.9 58.0 6.1 7.0 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.6 9.6 10.1 -0.1 47.6 47.9 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 3.2 2.6 6.2 0.4 58.0 56.8 1.3 2.2 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.3 9.1 8.4 0.1 52.8 52.8 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.3 7.0 0.2 54.8 54.6 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.0 7.7 0.4 58.3 56.8 7.8 8.6 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.5 6.9 0.4 58.9 57.4 6.3 7.1 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.3 6.2 0.2 54.2 54.7 7.3 8.1 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.8 8.4 0.1 51.5 51.3 9.1 9.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.1 9.1 0.2 54.4 53.6 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.0 7.1 0.3 57.6 56.5 8.6 9.6 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 9.1 9.9 9.9 -0.2 45.7 46.3 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.1 6.5 0.2 54.3 54.7 6.2 6.9 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 8.8 9.8 10.1 -0.1 48.9 48.6 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.2 4.2 0.3 55.6 56.3 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.9 9.1 9.8 0.0 50.0 50.3 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 8.5 9.2 9.7 -0.2 46.5 46.9 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.7 10.0 0.1 51.4 50.7 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.3 8.2 0.1 52.2 52.3 8.5 9.2 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 8.3 9.4 9.0 -0.2 47.2 48.3 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.2 5.9 0.2 54.2 54.8 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 8.3 9.9 9.7 -0.1 47.6 48.2 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.1 8.2 0.2 54.8 53.9 7.0 7.9 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.8 5.9 0.2 54.6 55.2 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.6 9.9 10.2 -0.1 49.1 48.9 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------