***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9.0 10.0 10.6 2.0 92.1 85.2 7.4 8.0 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 8.8 10.0 10.1 1.9 91.4 84.7 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 10.5 11.7 10.7 2.0 92.9 86.7 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 5.1 6.5 8.1 2.2 94.9 90.3 3.3 4.0 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 7.4 8.6 8.6 2.1 93.6 88.6 5.7 6.4 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 6.2 7.4 6.4 2.2 95.5 90.8 4.8 5.3 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 8.7 9.8 10.2 1.9 92.0 85.3 7.0 7.7 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 1.0 2.3 6.3 2.1 94.8 89.7 -0.7 0.0 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 7.9 8.9 8.7 1.9 93.5 87.9 6.5 7.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 8.0 9.1 7.2 2.0 93.8 88.5 6.6 7.1 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 7.7 8.7 8.0 2.1 94.6 89.7 6.2 6.8 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 6.2 7.3 7.2 2.2 95.6 90.8 4.8 5.3 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 7.2 8.2 6.7 2.0 93.9 88.5 5.9 6.4 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 8.6 9.6 8.5 1.9 93.0 87.3 7.0 7.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 8.7 9.8 9.2 2.0 94.7 90.3 7.3 7.8 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 8.5 9.7 7.5 2.1 94.7 90.0 6.9 7.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 8.8 9.8 10.0 1.9 91.1 84.9 7.2 7.9 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 6.0 7.1 6.8 2.2 94.4 89.4 4.6 5.1 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 8.6 9.6 10.1 1.9 91.7 85.2 7.0 7.6 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 3.1 4.1 4.8 2.3 94.0 89.0 1.7 2.2 2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 8.1 9.1 10.1 1.9 92.5 86.2 6.5 7.1 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 8.0 8.9 9.8 1.8 90.7 84.6 6.5 7.1 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 8.3 9.4 10.0 1.9 92.9 86.8 6.7 7.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 7.9 9.0 8.6 2.0 94.0 88.5 6.4 7.0 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 8.4 9.4 9.5 1.9 91.2 84.5 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 7.1 8.0 6.3 2.0 94.1 89.4 5.7 6.2 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 9.1 10.4 10.1 2.0 91.7 84.7 7.1 7.9 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 6.8 7.8 8.5 2.2 95.2 91.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 5.4 6.6 6.1 2.1 93.6 88.3 3.6 4.3 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 8.9 10.0 10.4 1.9 92.0 85.2 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------