***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 18.9 22.9 20.4 4.7 97.2 94.9 14.6 16.2 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 18.7 22.7 20.5 4.7 97.4 95.5 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 18.8 22.7 20.9 5.0 97.2 94.9 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 11.6 15.2 17.6 4.9 97.2 95.0 7.8 9.1 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 19.3 22.9 19.3 5.0 97.0 94.6 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 18.2 20.9 16.8 4.4 94.6 91.1 14.4 15.8 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 18.6 22.5 20.1 4.5 97.2 95.1 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 6.9 11.1 18.1 5.7 98.1 96.0 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 18.7 22.7 20.4 5.2 97.6 95.4 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 18.6 22.5 19.0 5.6 97.6 95.4 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 19.0 22.9 19.9 5.2 97.3 94.7 15.1 16.5 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 18.1 22.3 18.7 5.4 98.1 95.9 14.2 15.6 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 19.2 22.3 18.8 4.5 95.5 92.4 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 18.6 22.8 20.6 5.6 97.6 95.9 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 18.7 21.9 19.9 4.6 97.5 95.5 15.5 16.7 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 19.4 22.8 18.9 4.8 96.5 93.6 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 18.1 21.9 20.0 4.6 97.4 95.5 14.1 15.5 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 18.2 22.4 18.6 5.9 97.7 95.7 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 18.5 22.5 20.7 4.9 97.5 95.6 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 13.3 17.6 16.4 5.9 97.7 95.7 9.2 10.7 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 18.9 22.7 20.9 5.1 97.1 94.7 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 18.6 22.7 20.4 4.9 97.6 96.1 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 18.7 22.9 21.0 5.2 97.6 95.8 14.5 16.0 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 18.5 22.6 20.5 5.6 97.5 95.5 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 18.7 22.0 19.3 4.6 96.7 94.2 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 18.3 21.4 17.1 4.6 96.3 93.5 14.7 16.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 18.8 22.3 19.7 4.5 96.7 94.2 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 18.7 21.7 18.8 4.8 97.1 94.8 15.4 16.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 13.0 17.3 18.0 5.9 97.7 95.6 8.8 10.3 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 18.6 22.7 20.5 4.7 97.4 95.3 14.4 16.0 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------