***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 20.7 22.2 21.1 3.2 86.1 80.9 17.0 18.5 19.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 20.5 22.3 20.8 3.1 86.1 80.7 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 20.7 22.4 21.3 3.3 86.2 81.1 16.9 18.5 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 13.4 14.8 18.7 3.5 87.4 82.8 9.6 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 20.8 22.4 20.0 3.7 87.6 82.9 17.0 18.5 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 19.1 20.7 18.1 4.1 88.4 83.9 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 20.1 21.7 20.7 3.1 85.9 80.3 16.4 17.9 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 8.4 10.2 18.3 3.9 88.5 83.2 4.7 6.2 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 20.4 21.9 20.6 3.6 87.1 82.3 16.5 18.0 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 20.4 22.0 19.2 3.8 87.5 82.5 16.6 18.1 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 20.5 22.3 20.3 3.9 88.5 83.6 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 19.6 21.5 19.2 3.9 89.4 84.1 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 20.5 22.3 19.4 3.9 88.9 84.0 16.6 18.1 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 20.9 22.5 20.2 3.5 86.2 81.3 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 20.3 21.7 20.3 3.4 87.7 83.4 16.8 18.1 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 21.0 22.8 19.6 3.9 89.0 84.1 17.1 18.6 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 19.7 21.3 20.5 3.1 85.6 80.1 16.1 17.6 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 20.0 21.6 18.5 3.7 86.6 81.5 16.2 17.7 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 20.4 22.2 21.0 3.2 86.4 81.1 16.5 18.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 14.9 16.7 16.0 3.7 87.1 81.6 11.0 12.6 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 20.5 22.1 21.2 3.5 86.3 81.4 16.7 18.3 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 20.8 22.4 20.5 3.0 85.2 80.2 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 20.9 22.8 21.2 3.4 87.3 82.1 17.0 18.6 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 20.4 22.1 20.2 3.6 86.2 81.3 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 20.5 22.1 19.9 3.4 86.1 81.3 16.7 18.3 19.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 19.7 21.7 18.2 4.0 90.8 85.9 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 20.3 21.8 20.5 3.2 86.0 80.9 16.6 18.1 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 20.4 21.8 19.5 3.6 87.8 83.3 16.9 18.2 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 14.9 16.6 17.6 3.6 86.4 81.1 11.1 12.6 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 20.4 22.2 21.0 3.2 86.4 80.9 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------