***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 20.6 21.6 20.2 2.0 87.5 79.7 18.6 19.5 20.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 20.6 21.7 20.1 2.0 86.2 79.2 18.4 19.3 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 20.6 21.8 20.5 2.1 87.9 80.1 18.5 19.4 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 13.3 14.5 17.9 2.3 90.3 83.1 11.2 12.1 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 20.7 21.9 18.9 2.3 89.7 82.1 18.7 19.6 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 19.3 20.4 16.8 2.4 90.6 83.0 17.3 18.1 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 20.3 21.2 19.9 1.9 85.6 78.6 18.1 19.0 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 8.4 10.0 17.4 2.6 92.0 84.2 6.2 7.1 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 20.3 21.5 19.4 2.3 89.6 81.8 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 20.2 21.5 18.2 2.5 90.7 82.8 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 20.5 21.9 19.0 2.5 91.2 83.4 18.4 19.3 20.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 19.5 20.9 18.3 2.6 92.3 84.5 17.5 18.3 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 20.4 21.8 18.0 2.4 90.3 82.2 18.4 19.3 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 20.6 21.8 19.3 2.4 89.0 81.5 18.3 19.2 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 20.4 21.5 19.2 2.2 90.5 83.9 18.6 19.3 20.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 20.9 22.3 18.4 2.4 91.0 83.1 18.8 19.7 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 20.0 20.9 19.8 2.0 85.1 78.7 17.7 18.7 19.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 19.8 21.1 17.7 2.6 90.3 82.2 17.7 18.6 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 20.3 21.4 20.2 2.1 86.9 79.8 18.1 19.0 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 14.9 16.3 15.3 2.6 91.1 83.1 12.6 13.5 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 20.5 21.6 20.1 2.2 88.3 80.6 18.4 19.3 20.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 20.6 21.7 19.8 2.0 85.7 79.2 18.3 19.3 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 20.6 21.9 20.4 2.2 88.5 81.1 18.4 19.3 20.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 20.2 21.4 19.3 2.4 89.3 81.5 18.0 18.9 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 20.4 21.5 18.8 2.1 87.8 80.3 18.4 19.3 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 19.7 21.0 17.2 2.5 91.8 84.2 17.7 18.5 19.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 20.2 21.3 19.5 2.0 87.0 79.4 18.3 19.1 19.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 20.4 21.6 18.5 2.3 90.7 83.7 18.6 19.3 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 14.8 16.2 16.9 2.6 90.2 82.1 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 20.4 21.5 20.1 2.0 87.0 79.6 18.2 19.1 20.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------