***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 5.1 4.8 6.7 39.2 23.4 22.2 7.0 12.0 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 4.2 3.9 6.4 39.3 22.4 21.8 5.8 9.6 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 5.4 4.1 4.9 29.2 16.2 16.3 8.3 13.3 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 8.1 5.8 6.4 32.3 15.4 16.6 11.7 18.3 26.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 6.5 5.2 6.0 32.3 15.7 16.2 9.7 15.1 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 5.2 3.4 6.3 32.5 13.7 15.1 8.0 12.8 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 4.4 4.2 7.0 43.1 25.6 24.7 5.7 9.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 9.7 5.7 4.5 20.4 8.5 9.8 15.6 22.9 31.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 4.8 3.0 5.1 28.3 13.5 14.3 7.6 12.7 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 5.6 3.2 5.1 24.2 10.7 11.8 9.3 14.7 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 4.9 3.0 4.8 26.7 12.4 13.2 8.0 13.3 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 5.5 3.3 4.1 21.9 11.0 11.7 8.8 14.0 20.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 6.7 6.5 8.2 42.4 23.8 21.0 9.1 14.7 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 7.8 5.4 5.6 26.1 13.4 13.9 11.2 17.0 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 4.8 3.6 4.2 24.3 17.7 16.4 7.3 12.6 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 6.0 4.6 6.5 34.9 17.5 17.5 8.8 14.3 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 4.6 5.1 7.7 49.8 30.3 28.1 5.6 9.6 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 5.4 3.0 5.3 23.6 9.8 11.1 8.8 13.9 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 4.1 3.3 5.8 34.7 18.9 18.8 6.1 10.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 4.0 1.6 4.7 18.9 6.8 8.2 7.4 12.2 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 5.2 3.3 5.1 29.1 13.9 15.1 7.8 12.6 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 3.8 3.1 6.5 40.8 22.7 22.3 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 5.7 4.6 5.3 30.9 16.6 16.7 8.1 12.3 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 5.3 3.7 5.1 26.0 14.2 14.0 8.9 14.9 22.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 6.8 6.8 9.1 46.8 27.9 25.9 8.2 14.0 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 6.0 4.1 4.6 23.9 13.2 13.2 9.0 13.7 19.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 6.8 7.0 8.6 47.3 28.8 26.7 8.2 14.0 21.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 5.0 3.6 5.6 29.7 16.7 16.6 7.5 12.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 93 7 0 100 7.3 3.9 4.9 21.5 8.9 10.2 12.3 19.2 28.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 3.6 3.2 5.9 35.8 20.1 20.1 5.5 9.1 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------