***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.0 18.5 17.3 117.6 68.7 57.6 7.1 11.6 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.4 12.8 15.6 109.3 65.4 55.0 4.0 7.8 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.5 15.6 15.2 101.7 62.5 51.4 6.0 10.7 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.3 19.2 15.8 98.8 62.0 51.6 9.5 14.7 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 12.4 13.6 14.7 96.6 60.6 51.9 5.3 9.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.4 15.9 88.3 54.9 47.2 7.2 11.1 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 9.8 13.2 15.6 113.1 66.9 58.0 4.2 7.9 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.3 14.4 87.1 56.0 47.8 13.0 18.9 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.5 14.6 92.9 58.5 50.5 5.3 9.7 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.2 15.4 90.1 57.7 50.1 7.4 12.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.1 14.6 89.8 56.9 48.7 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.2 14.1 89.2 56.5 48.5 7.3 11.3 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 8.1 14.8 14.9 85.7 55.2 46.1 7.9 13.0 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.6 18.4 97.1 60.1 50.0 7.9 12.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.7 15.4 16.5 108.9 65.9 53.9 5.7 9.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.6 15.6 96.3 59.7 50.7 6.9 11.4 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.0 14.7 15.5 110.4 65.6 54.6 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.9 12.0 15.4 81.0 51.3 44.3 6.8 11.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 14.8 15.5 106.8 64.5 53.5 5.0 9.4 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.9 11.5 16.1 82.5 51.5 44.3 6.6 11.1 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.0 14.0 15.4 106.0 64.2 55.1 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.2 15.3 103.8 63.4 52.6 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.0 12.4 15.6 103.4 63.1 51.8 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.2 14.0 15.3 86.2 54.3 45.1 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.1 17.5 19.0 117.2 68.3 56.9 5.4 10.0 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 6.1 11.1 14.7 85.0 53.8 46.7 5.8 10.0 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.7 19.5 19.3 123.2 70.5 58.7 6.0 10.8 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.5 13.0 15.1 98.8 62.1 50.9 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.1 16.4 16.6 84.0 52.5 45.3 9.5 15.4 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.3 15.7 109.9 65.8 55.4 4.7 8.4 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------