***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.0 8.7 16.3 108.4 65.9 53.7 2.9 5.4 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.7 14.3 107.6 65.2 51.3 2.9 5.1 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.0 9.5 15.1 105.7 64.8 50.2 4.0 6.5 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.7 16.6 92.6 59.7 47.6 4.0 7.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.2 8.5 17.1 104.6 64.0 50.8 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.1 19.7 88.8 55.6 44.2 4.3 7.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.5 14.6 106.3 64.9 52.6 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.5 16.3 18.3 92.0 57.4 46.5 9.4 13.9 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.7 9.9 18.3 110.0 66.2 51.2 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.1 19.6 99.3 60.9 48.4 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.9 16.0 97.0 60.4 48.5 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.0 8.8 16.2 89.9 57.1 45.8 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.5 7.8 18.1 85.9 53.4 42.7 3.7 6.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.8 11.2 19.3 104.4 63.8 50.2 4.7 7.8 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.9 14.7 85.0 57.4 44.4 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.7 8.1 16.6 89.2 56.3 45.1 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.4 6.4 13.1 96.0 60.9 49.6 2.0 4.3 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.6 20.7 94.5 59.0 46.4 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.8 14.5 109.2 65.7 51.3 3.0 5.1 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.6 20.9 87.0 54.7 44.7 4.4 7.5 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.4 8.0 16.8 109.0 66.0 50.8 3.1 5.2 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.8 7.4 13.6 99.1 62.2 50.7 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.0 8.6 14.9 111.6 66.6 51.9 3.4 5.6 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.4 18.4 100.9 62.2 48.5 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.9 17.7 101.3 62.8 50.4 4.1 6.5 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.2 6.8 17.0 83.2 52.9 42.0 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.4 8.6 16.9 104.2 64.1 52.4 3.2 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.2 7.4 15.5 84.8 56.6 44.8 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.3 13.2 20.4 91.5 57.2 45.1 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.6 8.0 14.9 110.0 66.1 52.3 3.0 5.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------