***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.6 9.9 13.5 103.5 64.1 49.3 3.7 6.5 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.5 10.9 12.0 95.6 61.4 45.9 4.4 7.8 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.8 10.6 13.0 101.0 63.6 49.4 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 8.0 17.4 14.8 92.3 60.3 47.7 7.4 13.0 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.7 14.2 99.1 62.7 50.0 4.2 7.9 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.4 15.5 90.0 58.0 47.6 5.4 9.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.8 11.6 12.0 97.3 62.0 46.2 4.8 8.3 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 25.2 28.1 16.6 104.2 63.1 52.2 11.2 19.4 30.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.5 12.2 14.6 99.2 62.9 50.7 3.8 7.7 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.5 15.2 17.2 102.9 63.3 51.8 5.9 10.4 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.0 14.0 13.8 103.5 64.1 51.0 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.6 15.6 13.9 98.8 61.3 50.4 7.0 11.7 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.6 10.7 14.5 88.4 56.6 46.0 4.9 8.8 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.7 17.6 18.6 103.2 63.3 50.4 6.3 11.7 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.8 10.7 14.5 98.3 63.7 49.4 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.4 14.1 95.4 60.7 47.9 5.1 8.6 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.9 12.5 11.9 91.9 60.4 46.2 4.2 8.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 15.3 17.2 19.3 104.2 63.2 51.6 6.6 11.6 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.2 13.4 12.4 95.1 61.1 46.5 4.8 9.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.0 16.7 20.6 110.2 65.0 53.4 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.6 13.8 103.2 64.4 50.4 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.2 10.9 12.6 88.4 59.4 46.4 5.2 8.6 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.0 14.5 13.4 98.6 62.3 48.7 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.1 16.6 16.7 106.2 64.5 51.3 5.8 10.6 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.4 12.4 15.6 101.3 63.3 50.5 4.1 8.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.7 8.7 12.1 79.4 52.2 43.6 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.0 11.8 14.6 104.4 64.3 50.0 4.1 7.6 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.3 10.6 14.6 93.5 61.5 48.4 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.6 21.4 20.4 111.6 66.0 53.8 7.6 13.5 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.7 12.2 97.6 62.1 46.8 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------