***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 34.2 45.3 53.7 89.8 48.8 45.0 36.1 46.2 57.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 26.5 34.1 48.3 85.6 43.5 41.0 27.7 38.5 50.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 35.9 43.7 48.1 81.8 41.0 38.9 38.8 49.4 61.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 56.4 61.1 53.6 76.9 37.2 37.2 58.4 69.1 80.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 37.7 42.6 52.0 80.6 38.7 38.8 39.0 50.3 62.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 40.5 41.9 57.5 74.9 32.1 34.1 42.4 53.1 64.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 28.8 37.2 49.2 87.5 46.3 43.3 28.9 39.6 52.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 75.1 75.6 53.7 72.4 27.3 31.2 80.0 93.2 106.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 38.2 43.4 52.6 80.8 38.7 38.0 39.8 50.7 62.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 45.6 47.7 57.5 76.5 32.3 34.5 47.9 58.5 69.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 39.5 41.7 49.2 76.6 33.2 35.3 41.4 52.5 64.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 45.2 46.1 48.3 72.5 28.8 31.8 48.2 57.0 66.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 43.9 46.6 55.7 75.0 30.8 33.5 48.0 57.9 68.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 46.4 51.7 62.0 80.3 37.7 36.8 47.9 61.6 76.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 35.8 42.1 49.9 77.5 41.7 38.8 36.8 47.4 59.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 39.3 42.7 52.7 77.4 33.9 35.8 42.1 53.1 65.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 29.7 38.0 48.1 85.9 44.2 41.1 30.0 42.4 56.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 46.0 46.7 60.6 74.1 29.6 32.4 48.8 59.7 71.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 30.5 39.1 48.2 83.8 41.7 39.4 33.1 45.2 59.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 41.9 40.4 62.2 72.2 24.7 30.3 45.2 55.0 65.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 36.4 42.5 51.1 84.1 42.7 40.4 38.0 46.1 54.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 28.8 34.7 48.0 81.7 40.3 38.7 30.4 41.0 53.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 33.8 41.1 49.1 83.0 41.1 38.6 36.1 46.5 58.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 45.8 49.6 55.5 77.7 35.3 35.5 48.0 59.6 72.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 39.8 51.1 61.3 89.7 47.8 44.9 41.7 52.7 64.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 35.5 34.6 48.4 67.1 24.6 28.8 39.7 49.8 60.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 36.4 51.1 59.4 92.8 50.9 47.0 38.7 50.5 63.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 35.7 40.5 50.8 74.9 36.7 36.1 38.2 48.4 59.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 58.3 58.8 62.4 74.9 29.2 32.5 61.9 76.5 91.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 28.3 36.0 48.7 85.7 44.3 41.7 29.6 39.4 50.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------