***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.3 7.2 0.1 52.6 52.3 4.8 6.1 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.0 6.4 -0.4 42.3 43.7 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.9 6.9 6.8 -0.4 42.1 43.6 6.2 7.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 2.1 1.2 4.2 -0.4 42.6 44.3 0.5 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.4 4.3 5.0 -0.4 41.8 43.5 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.4 3.9 2.8 -0.1 48.1 48.9 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.5 6.6 -0.1 47.4 47.7 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.4 -2.8 2.2 -0.5 38.9 40.7 -3.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.0 4.6 4.8 -0.6 36.5 38.8 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.2 4.6 3.0 -0.6 36.5 38.6 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.6 4.4 -0.6 37.1 39.5 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.5 3.6 3.5 -0.4 42.1 43.9 3.0 4.1 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.1 3.4 -0.6 36.7 39.4 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.6 4.9 4.4 -0.7 35.1 38.1 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.4 5.4 -0.7 34.5 37.0 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.2 4.1 -0.4 41.0 43.1 4.6 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.4 6.1 -0.3 43.1 44.3 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.0 2.6 -0.6 38.1 40.1 2.7 3.7 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.0 4.7 6.2 -0.5 38.4 40.6 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 1.5 0.3 0.9 -0.5 39.8 41.2 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.1 6.2 -0.4 42.5 43.9 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.4 6.1 -0.6 37.7 39.8 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.9 4.2 6.0 -0.7 35.1 37.9 4.1 5.2 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.1 4.3 4.5 -0.7 34.1 36.9 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.9 6.5 0.2 53.0 52.7 4.5 5.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.4 2.9 -0.3 44.2 45.5 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.5 7.0 0.2 53.8 53.3 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.2 3.9 4.5 -0.6 37.3 39.6 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.6 1.1 1.8 -0.6 37.2 39.3 0.8 2.0 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.4 6.8 -0.3 44.1 45.3 4.7 5.8 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------