***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.1 10.6 0.2 53.5 52.4 8.9 9.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.0 10.4 0.3 54.1 52.3 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.7 10.6 0.2 52.8 51.5 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.6 8.0 0.1 52.5 51.6 5.4 6.4 7.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.3 8.0 0.1 51.0 50.6 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.4 7.2 6.0 0.1 51.9 51.1 6.1 7.1 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.0 10.4 0.3 54.3 52.5 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 2.5 2.3 5.9 0.1 52.6 51.8 1.2 2.2 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.1 8.2 0.1 51.8 51.1 8.1 9.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.2 6.7 0.1 52.4 51.6 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.7 7.3 0.0 49.6 49.6 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.2 6.6 0.0 50.6 50.3 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.1 6.0 -0.1 48.6 49.0 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.9 8.3 0.2 53.9 52.0 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.0 9.0 0.0 50.1 49.8 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.4 6.7 -0.1 48.8 49.1 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.4 10.3 0.4 55.5 53.2 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.1 6.0 0.2 52.9 52.0 6.3 7.0 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.0 10.4 0.2 53.6 52.0 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.0 3.8 0.0 50.9 51.1 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.3 9.7 0.2 53.1 52.1 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.7 10.1 0.3 55.8 53.5 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.7 10.1 0.2 52.8 51.4 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.3 8.0 0.2 53.3 51.9 8.5 9.2 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.7 9.2 0.2 53.8 52.8 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.0 5.7 -0.1 48.9 49.1 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.4 10.0 0.2 53.8 52.8 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.0 8.1 0.1 51.1 50.6 6.9 7.9 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.7 5.4 0.2 53.1 52.1 5.6 6.5 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.1 10.5 0.2 53.3 51.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------