***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.2 8.9 0.1 52.5 52.0 7.5 8.2 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 6.7 7.7 8.4 0.0 48.8 49.0 6.9 7.7 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.5 8.8 0.0 49.3 49.6 8.9 9.6 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.2 6.2 0.0 51.3 51.4 3.5 4.2 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.4 6.6 0.0 49.9 50.2 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.5 4.5 0.1 54.4 54.0 4.9 5.4 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 7.0 7.8 8.5 0.0 50.2 50.1 7.2 7.8 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.3 0.1 4.3 0.0 51.2 51.2 -0.5 0.1 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.1 6.7 0.0 48.9 49.3 6.6 7.2 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.2 5.1 0.0 50.2 50.3 6.7 7.2 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.8 6.0 0.0 48.5 49.2 6.4 6.9 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.4 5.2 0.0 50.4 50.7 4.9 5.4 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.4 4.8 -0.1 47.0 48.1 6.0 6.5 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.0 7.7 6.5 0.0 49.1 49.2 7.1 7.7 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 7.4 7.8 7.3 -0.2 44.6 46.2 7.4 8.0 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.6 5.6 0.0 49.8 50.4 7.0 7.6 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 7.2 8.0 8.2 0.0 49.8 49.7 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.3 4.5 0.1 51.9 51.7 4.7 5.2 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 6.9 7.6 8.4 -0.1 47.9 48.3 7.1 7.7 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.5 2.4 2.6 0.0 51.2 51.5 1.8 2.3 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.3 8.1 0.0 51.1 51.1 6.6 7.2 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.6 7.2 8.1 0.0 48.8 49.0 6.7 7.3 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 6.7 7.3 8.2 -0.1 47.5 48.0 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.1 6.4 0.0 49.1 49.3 6.6 7.1 7.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.7 7.8 0.1 53.8 53.0 6.9 7.5 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.3 4.4 -0.1 48.3 48.7 5.8 6.3 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.2 8.4 0.1 52.6 52.1 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.0 6.5 -0.1 47.4 48.5 5.7 6.1 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.5 3.9 0.1 52.0 51.7 3.7 4.4 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 7.1 7.9 8.6 0.0 48.8 49.0 7.3 7.9 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------