***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 17.0 17.1 17.0 0.5 57.1 56.3 14.9 16.5 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.7 16.4 16.8 0.1 52.0 52.2 14.8 16.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 16.8 16.8 17.0 0.4 54.8 54.3 14.9 16.4 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 9.7 9.9 13.9 0.5 57.6 56.8 7.7 9.2 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 17.2 17.5 15.6 0.6 58.0 57.0 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.7 14.0 1.0 62.9 61.3 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.3 16.6 0.1 51.5 51.8 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 4.7 5.0 13.9 0.6 58.1 57.3 2.9 4.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.8 16.4 0.5 56.3 55.5 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 16.6 16.8 14.8 0.6 57.9 56.9 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 16.9 17.1 16.0 0.5 57.1 56.2 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.1 14.8 0.5 56.2 55.8 14.1 15.6 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 17.1 17.0 15.6 0.4 55.1 54.9 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 16.4 16.3 15.9 0.2 53.0 52.9 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 17.1 16.9 16.2 0.1 52.2 52.2 15.5 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 17.3 17.5 15.5 0.5 57.3 56.6 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.2 15.9 16.4 0.2 52.3 52.5 14.3 15.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 16.1 16.3 14.0 0.6 57.1 56.3 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.1 16.7 0.1 51.3 51.6 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 11.0 11.2 12.0 0.6 57.3 56.7 9.1 10.6 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 16.9 17.1 17.1 0.6 58.1 57.0 14.9 16.4 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 16.6 16.2 16.3 0.1 51.2 51.6 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 16.7 16.2 16.7 0.0 50.5 50.8 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 16.4 16.5 16.0 0.4 55.4 54.9 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 17.0 17.0 15.8 0.4 55.3 54.7 15.1 16.5 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.3 14.0 0.5 56.5 56.1 14.5 15.8 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 16.8 16.7 16.3 0.3 54.3 54.0 14.9 16.4 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 17.0 17.1 15.0 0.4 56.1 55.5 15.3 16.6 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 10.7 10.9 13.3 0.5 56.4 55.8 8.8 10.3 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.6 16.3 16.8 0.2 52.3 52.4 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------