***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 17.0 18.6 17.7 -0.1 48.5 48.4 17.2 18.7 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 16.9 18.5 17.6 -0.2 47.4 47.6 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 16.8 18.4 17.7 -0.3 46.9 47.2 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.1 14.7 -0.2 48.1 48.1 9.8 11.3 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 19.5 18.6 15.9 -0.2 47.4 47.7 17.3 18.8 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.4 14.1 0.0 50.4 50.4 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 16.5 18.1 17.5 -0.2 48.0 48.0 16.8 18.3 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.4 14.2 -0.2 47.5 48.2 5.1 6.6 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 16.5 18.0 16.5 -0.2 47.2 47.5 16.7 18.3 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 19.1 18.2 15.0 -0.2 47.7 48.1 16.9 18.4 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 16.7 18.2 16.1 -0.3 47.1 47.6 17.0 18.5 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.4 15.2 -0.3 46.9 47.7 16.1 17.6 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.3 15.4 -0.3 47.0 47.9 17.0 18.6 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 16.8 18.6 16.3 -0.3 47.1 47.4 17.3 18.9 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 19.0 18.1 16.5 -0.4 45.6 46.2 17.1 18.4 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 17.2 18.8 15.6 -0.2 47.6 48.2 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 18.6 18.0 17.4 0.0 49.9 49.2 16.5 18.0 19.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 18.6 17.9 14.4 -0.2 48.3 48.5 16.5 18.0 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 16.7 18.2 17.6 -0.3 46.8 47.2 16.9 18.5 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.0 12.2 -0.1 49.4 49.9 11.4 13.0 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 16.7 18.4 17.4 -0.1 48.4 48.2 17.0 18.5 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 19.5 18.9 17.4 0.0 50.1 49.5 17.3 18.9 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 17.0 18.6 17.5 -0.3 45.9 46.5 17.4 18.9 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 16.5 18.1 16.2 -0.2 47.2 47.5 16.8 18.4 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 19.2 18.4 16.3 -0.2 47.9 47.9 17.0 18.6 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 18.5 17.7 14.4 -0.3 47.1 48.0 16.5 18.0 19.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 16.6 18.2 17.0 -0.2 48.1 48.1 16.9 18.4 19.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 19.1 18.4 15.5 -0.2 47.6 47.9 17.2 18.6 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.9 13.7 -0.1 48.8 49.1 11.4 13.1 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 16.6 18.2 17.6 -0.3 46.8 47.2 16.9 18.4 19.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------