***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 20.0 21.1 18.4 -0.4 45.5 46.0 20.2 21.4 22.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.0 18.4 -0.2 47.5 47.5 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 21.7 20.7 18.6 -0.4 45.9 46.3 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.9 13.0 15.8 -0.8 41.3 42.9 12.1 13.8 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 19.5 20.6 16.4 -0.7 42.7 43.9 19.8 21.2 22.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 20.0 18.7 14.3 -0.6 43.3 44.8 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 19.1 20.6 18.3 -0.2 47.5 47.4 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.1 15.0 -0.5 44.5 45.5 7.1 8.6 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 19.0 20.3 16.8 -0.5 44.1 45.0 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 19.0 20.3 15.7 -0.5 44.9 45.7 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 19.1 20.2 16.2 -0.7 42.5 43.7 19.4 20.8 22.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 18.2 19.3 16.0 -0.7 43.1 44.3 18.4 19.9 21.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 21.4 20.1 15.2 -0.6 43.4 44.7 19.2 20.7 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 19.2 20.7 16.8 -0.2 47.3 47.5 19.4 20.9 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 19.3 20.0 16.5 -1.0 38.3 40.3 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 21.9 20.6 15.8 -0.7 42.7 44.0 19.7 21.2 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 21.0 20.4 18.4 0.0 49.8 49.1 19.0 20.4 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 20.8 19.9 15.4 -0.3 47.3 47.5 18.7 20.2 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.4 20.5 18.5 -0.3 47.0 47.1 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.7 14.9 12.9 -0.2 48.2 48.4 13.5 15.0 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 21.7 20.6 17.8 -0.4 45.3 45.8 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.0 18.3 0.0 50.1 49.4 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 21.7 20.7 18.4 -0.4 46.2 46.6 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 18.9 20.3 16.7 -0.3 46.6 47.0 19.1 20.6 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 19.3 20.4 16.6 -0.5 43.8 44.7 19.5 20.9 22.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 20.4 19.2 15.1 -0.7 42.8 44.2 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 19.2 20.4 17.6 -0.4 45.0 45.6 19.5 20.8 22.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 21.6 20.1 15.9 -0.9 40.1 41.9 19.4 21.0 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.7 14.9 14.5 -0.2 48.3 48.3 13.5 15.1 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.4 20.5 18.4 -0.3 46.4 46.7 19.4 20.8 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------