***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.7 10.9 10.9 66.5 45.6 40.6 7.2 12.3 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.9 11.4 11.1 77.4 52.0 46.5 7.1 10.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.5 14.3 10.6 66.5 47.2 41.6 10.0 15.3 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 12.6 15.5 10.4 52.5 39.8 35.7 13.2 19.4 26.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 9.5 12.0 9.8 56.3 41.4 36.9 9.5 15.0 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 8.6 12.8 12.8 67.8 47.1 40.4 9.1 13.6 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.6 11.2 11.1 77.3 51.7 46.0 6.1 10.7 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 17.1 20.0 10.9 55.3 39.6 35.9 17.2 24.5 33.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.9 9.8 9.6 56.6 41.3 37.7 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.8 11.6 11.4 58.5 41.4 37.4 9.2 14.5 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 7.5 9.8 9.8 56.1 41.5 36.4 7.2 12.8 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.8 8.7 51.2 38.6 34.8 8.3 13.3 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 9.1 12.6 10.1 58.4 43.2 36.7 9.3 15.1 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 20.7 17.3 13.1 68.3 48.1 43.0 12.4 17.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 8.5 12.1 10.0 55.9 46.0 39.4 8.0 13.6 20.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 8.4 11.4 9.5 57.3 42.2 36.5 8.4 14.5 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.9 12.4 90.2 58.0 51.4 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.8 10.9 11.6 59.5 41.6 38.1 8.5 13.6 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.9 11.7 10.9 74.7 50.9 44.9 7.3 11.5 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.8 8.5 10.4 50.7 35.0 32.1 8.1 12.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.3 11.7 9.9 60.3 43.7 40.0 8.8 13.6 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 11.9 13.6 13.7 98.1 61.6 54.2 5.8 10.0 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.1 12.4 10.7 69.6 48.7 42.3 8.7 12.7 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 19.1 14.6 11.6 65.2 46.6 41.4 10.1 15.8 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 19.7 14.2 11.9 66.8 45.8 41.8 9.7 15.8 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 8.6 10.5 8.7 50.3 38.9 34.2 9.1 13.6 19.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.6 13.4 12.5 72.5 48.5 43.2 8.1 13.9 21.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 8.4 11.4 9.9 52.6 41.4 36.0 8.7 14.2 21.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.1 16.1 11.6 60.0 41.8 37.9 13.0 19.3 26.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.4 9.9 10.8 72.7 49.4 43.9 6.1 10.1 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------