***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 14.3 17.5 16.8 112.7 67.2 54.8 7.1 11.5 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.8 15.6 109.7 66.5 55.6 3.6 6.8 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.2 16.0 16.3 107.7 65.5 55.0 6.0 10.5 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.0 20.6 20.7 114.0 67.7 57.5 9.6 14.3 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.5 16.0 19.5 112.3 67.0 57.1 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.5 15.5 21.6 115.3 67.4 57.3 6.1 10.0 15.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.6 11.5 15.5 109.3 66.3 55.5 4.3 7.4 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 26.2 26.6 22.5 120.8 69.6 61.1 11.6 17.4 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.1 15.2 19.1 110.4 66.3 56.6 5.4 9.7 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.7 18.8 22.6 117.3 68.5 60.1 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.2 18.1 20.9 120.5 69.6 59.5 5.8 10.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 17.3 17.1 20.1 120.8 69.7 59.9 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 15.4 19.5 20.8 117.1 68.3 58.1 7.4 12.3 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.8 16.2 21.6 106.4 64.4 54.0 6.3 10.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.3 14.3 19.1 114.1 68.1 56.5 5.0 8.7 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 13.3 16.7 20.5 117.0 68.3 57.8 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.6 15.2 107.9 66.0 54.9 4.1 8.0 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 19.8 18.3 22.8 112.5 66.5 58.7 6.6 11.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 14.7 16.0 110.5 66.7 55.6 4.7 8.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 17.6 15.5 23.2 109.4 64.6 57.8 6.0 10.3 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.2 13.3 17.5 107.9 65.5 55.6 6.1 9.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.5 11.6 16.6 114.0 67.8 56.4 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.2 12.0 16.4 105.6 64.8 53.5 4.2 7.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.3 17.4 20.1 107.3 64.6 55.7 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.9 15.4 19.8 114.1 67.4 55.3 5.1 9.2 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.9 15.3 20.1 120.8 69.6 59.1 4.3 8.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.7 16.6 18.7 114.7 67.7 55.4 5.5 9.8 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.5 13.5 20.0 113.8 67.8 57.1 4.7 8.2 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.8 21.2 23.0 109.5 64.9 57.6 9.1 14.7 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.6 13.1 15.6 108.0 65.8 55.2 5.3 8.7 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------