***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.5 9.6 14.1 83.8 56.3 45.0 4.5 8.0 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 3.9 10.4 13.1 85.1 56.7 43.1 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.4 10.1 14.6 88.0 58.0 45.7 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.0 16.5 17.6 92.9 59.4 47.0 6.7 12.3 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.9 11.1 16.4 91.0 58.6 46.2 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.4 14.9 19.8 94.9 58.9 48.9 6.0 11.2 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 4.5 11.1 13.6 88.3 58.4 43.8 4.8 8.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 11.9 25.7 18.8 93.6 58.5 47.7 11.4 20.2 31.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 5.1 12.8 17.1 92.3 59.5 46.7 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.5 14.0 19.7 92.0 58.1 47.1 6.4 11.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.6 12.8 15.5 90.9 58.1 46.2 5.4 10.0 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.1 14.7 16.2 95.6 59.9 48.9 7.1 11.5 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.7 18.3 92.8 59.2 50.1 5.3 9.1 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.1 13.7 19.8 86.0 55.5 44.4 5.8 11.4 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.7 11.0 16.3 95.8 61.6 46.8 4.5 7.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.7 17.0 93.1 59.4 48.9 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.7 12.8 12.8 87.5 58.2 43.2 4.9 9.6 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.1 15.9 21.5 92.3 58.1 47.9 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 5.2 14.0 13.5 84.6 56.6 43.4 6.0 11.3 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.6 21.8 96.1 59.5 48.9 7.6 12.3 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 5.4 11.6 15.2 88.1 58.1 45.8 5.5 9.4 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 5.4 10.8 13.1 81.3 54.9 41.1 5.9 9.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 5.4 13.7 14.3 86.1 57.7 44.4 5.9 10.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 6.4 14.6 18.7 88.8 57.3 45.9 6.3 11.7 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.8 11.9 16.0 83.2 55.0 44.0 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 4.6 11.1 16.3 93.1 59.5 48.1 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 6.0 11.7 14.9 81.1 54.7 44.1 6.1 10.3 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.3 17.4 93.5 60.0 47.9 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.7 17.1 21.5 93.2 58.4 48.0 7.2 13.2 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.6 10.3 13.8 86.5 57.4 44.5 3.9 7.9 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------