***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 51.5 46.5 58.0 89.1 49.1 46.9 36.8 46.9 57.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 43.9 38.9 53.9 92.1 51.3 48.0 27.3 38.0 50.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 54.8 50.4 57.9 91.0 50.6 48.1 39.2 49.9 61.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 72.3 68.5 69.9 91.6 50.5 48.0 58.1 68.2 78.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 55.8 51.4 65.8 92.6 51.1 48.2 39.6 50.5 62.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 60.5 57.4 76.9 97.2 53.6 50.3 43.0 54.6 67.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 46.0 40.8 54.5 92.8 51.6 47.8 28.8 39.7 52.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 99.3 94.7 73.7 95.5 51.8 49.0 80.8 93.5 106.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 55.4 50.6 66.2 92.5 51.1 48.1 38.3 49.7 62.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 62.4 58.9 76.9 95.4 52.4 49.6 46.5 57.3 68.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 57.7 54.1 65.8 95.9 53.2 49.7 40.7 52.1 64.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 59.9 57.6 63.8 95.4 52.4 49.1 47.6 56.3 65.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 62.4 59.7 70.2 95.4 52.7 49.6 48.5 58.3 68.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 45.4 59.7 76.1 90.7 49.0 46.8 47.1 60.4 75.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 52.5 49.9 65.2 93.4 53.2 49.6 38.1 48.0 58.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 57.9 55.0 67.5 95.8 53.2 49.9 41.9 52.9 64.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 48.6 45.0 54.0 95.2 53.7 49.3 30.3 42.2 56.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 66.1 60.8 79.8 93.9 50.8 48.6 48.8 60.3 72.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 53.0 47.6 54.9 91.6 50.9 47.9 35.2 46.9 59.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 58.9 52.3 77.8 91.3 46.9 45.7 44.6 54.0 63.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 49.9 46.3 60.8 89.8 49.6 46.9 38.6 46.5 54.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 45.9 43.2 57.2 96.4 54.4 50.1 30.6 40.5 51.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 51.7 46.1 56.4 89.3 49.2 46.3 36.3 46.5 57.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 65.8 60.1 71.6 92.4 50.6 47.9 47.9 59.6 72.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 58.8 54.1 67.0 90.3 49.5 47.1 43.6 54.4 66.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 53.3 48.6 62.6 91.1 49.4 46.5 39.1 48.9 59.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 55.7 50.5 63.8 90.8 49.9 47.5 39.3 50.8 63.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 53.0 49.7 68.4 92.4 51.7 48.6 38.7 48.7 59.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 82.0 74.6 79.2 93.0 49.6 47.6 60.6 74.9 90.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 45.5 40.4 55.1 91.4 50.6 48.0 30.2 40.0 51.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------