***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.6 5.0 5.7 -1.0 33.1 34.4 5.0 6.2 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.4 6.3 -0.1 47.4 47.4 4.4 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.9 6.8 5.8 -0.6 39.3 40.2 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.1 3.7 -0.5 40.4 41.0 0.5 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.4 4.2 4.1 -0.5 40.5 41.0 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.4 3.5 2.1 -0.5 40.8 41.1 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.2 5.6 6.3 -0.2 46.0 46.1 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -3.8 -3.3 1.6 -1.0 32.8 33.8 -3.3 -2.0 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.3 4.5 4.2 -0.9 33.0 34.3 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.1 4.4 2.4 -1.0 32.8 33.9 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.2 4.6 3.4 -0.7 36.7 37.5 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.6 3.0 2.3 -0.9 32.1 33.3 3.0 4.1 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.4 2.7 -0.5 40.5 41.1 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.4 4.5 -0.4 42.0 42.6 4.9 5.8 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.3 5.7 5.0 -0.6 38.0 39.1 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.2 3.3 -0.5 41.0 41.5 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.3 5.9 6.2 0.0 49.6 49.1 4.9 6.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.5 2.9 1.7 -0.8 36.3 37.1 2.7 3.7 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.4 6.2 -0.2 46.0 46.2 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 1.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.8 37.6 38.1 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.3 4.7 5.4 -0.8 35.8 36.9 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.3 6.2 0.0 50.2 49.7 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.8 5.7 -0.4 43.1 43.6 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.8 4.1 -0.5 41.0 41.6 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.2 4.9 4.9 -0.7 38.4 39.3 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.1 4.5 2.7 -0.2 45.9 45.9 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.5 5.0 5.3 -0.9 35.6 36.8 4.8 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.3 4.4 -0.4 41.7 42.3 3.7 4.8 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.5 1.3 1.2 -0.7 38.2 38.8 0.9 2.1 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.5 6.3 -0.3 44.1 44.5 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------