***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.3 9.8 0.6 59.9 57.3 8.6 9.7 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.7 9.7 0.6 59.5 56.8 7.7 9.0 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.5 9.5 0.6 59.8 57.2 9.6 10.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.6 7.5 0.8 64.9 60.3 4.1 5.4 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.6 7.5 0.8 65.0 60.6 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 7.0 7.1 6.1 1.1 70.7 64.1 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.7 9.7 0.6 60.6 57.7 7.8 9.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 2.3 2.2 5.9 0.8 66.4 62.2 -0.1 1.1 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.0 7.9 0.8 64.4 60.4 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.1 6.5 0.8 65.8 61.6 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 8.7 8.6 7.1 0.8 66.8 62.1 6.7 7.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.8 6.8 0.8 67.1 62.7 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 8.0 8.2 6.4 1.0 70.0 64.2 6.3 7.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.3 7.7 0.5 58.8 56.3 7.7 8.8 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.7 8.0 0.9 67.3 61.6 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 9.8 9.8 6.9 1.0 68.8 63.3 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.8 9.4 0.5 58.7 56.1 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.9 5.8 0.7 64.0 60.6 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.5 9.5 0.5 58.9 56.4 7.8 9.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 4.1 4.0 4.3 0.9 65.6 61.8 2.0 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.9 8.9 0.7 61.8 58.5 7.0 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.9 9.3 0.4 57.5 55.1 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.1 9.1 0.5 58.3 56.0 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.7 7.6 0.6 60.7 57.9 7.1 8.1 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.6 8.2 0.6 60.7 57.9 7.5 8.8 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.0 6.7 1.0 69.2 63.1 6.2 7.0 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.3 9.1 0.6 60.8 58.1 7.8 9.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.8 7.8 0.9 67.6 61.7 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.5 5.2 0.7 63.6 60.4 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.9 9.8 0.6 60.0 57.3 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------