***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.6 9.3 10.1 -0.6 39.4 42.1 8.9 9.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.4 10.0 -0.6 39.9 42.1 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.0 9.8 -0.6 39.0 41.8 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.2 5.9 7.9 -0.5 40.0 42.8 5.5 6.5 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.8 7.5 7.7 -0.6 38.9 42.3 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.1 6.8 6.1 -0.4 41.9 44.1 6.3 7.2 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.5 10.0 -0.6 39.8 42.1 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.7 1.7 6.0 -0.5 39.7 42.9 1.3 2.3 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.8 8.4 8.1 -0.6 38.5 42.2 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 8.6 6.6 -0.5 39.6 42.9 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.7 8.2 7.3 -0.5 39.5 42.8 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.8 6.9 -0.5 39.4 42.5 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.3 7.8 6.4 -0.5 40.0 42.6 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.3 8.0 -0.6 37.8 40.8 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 9.0 9.7 8.4 -0.4 41.5 43.6 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 8.3 8.9 7.0 -0.5 39.9 42.6 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 9.4 9.8 9.8 -0.6 40.1 42.2 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.8 6.0 -0.5 39.7 42.8 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.5 9.9 -0.6 39.8 42.0 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.6 4.3 -0.6 39.6 42.9 3.2 4.1 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 7.8 8.5 9.2 -0.6 38.6 42.0 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.1 9.7 -0.6 39.8 41.9 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.2 9.5 -0.6 39.5 41.8 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.9 7.8 -0.6 38.6 41.6 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 8.2 8.9 8.5 -0.5 40.0 42.7 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 6.9 7.5 6.6 -0.6 38.1 40.8 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.5 9.3 9.3 -0.6 39.9 42.4 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 6.7 7.4 8.1 -0.4 40.8 43.1 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.0 5.4 -0.5 40.1 43.2 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.4 10.1 -0.6 39.6 42.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------