***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.0 8.4 -0.3 42.6 44.1 7.6 8.3 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.0 7.8 8.5 0.0 48.7 49.3 7.1 7.9 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.5 8.2 -0.2 45.1 46.4 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.6 4.3 6.2 -0.1 47.9 48.4 3.7 4.4 5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.8 6.5 6.2 -0.1 48.1 48.6 5.9 6.5 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.6 4.6 0.1 51.8 51.3 5.0 5.5 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.9 8.5 -0.1 48.3 48.8 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.5 0.0 4.4 -0.2 44.1 45.6 -0.4 0.2 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 6.7 7.1 6.6 -0.1 45.8 47.0 6.8 7.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.7 7.2 5.0 -0.2 44.6 46.0 6.8 7.3 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.4 6.9 5.7 -0.1 46.4 47.3 6.5 7.0 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.4 5.2 -0.2 44.5 46.0 5.1 5.5 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.6 5.0 0.0 51.2 50.8 6.1 6.6 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.7 6.6 -0.2 45.2 46.3 7.3 7.9 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.1 6.9 0.0 49.0 49.2 7.6 8.1 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.7 5.5 0.0 50.0 49.9 7.1 7.7 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.2 8.3 0.0 48.9 49.3 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.8 5.2 4.3 -0.2 45.0 46.3 4.8 5.4 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 7.1 7.8 8.4 -0.1 48.1 48.8 7.2 7.9 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.3 2.6 -0.1 46.2 47.3 2.0 2.4 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.2 7.7 -0.2 45.3 46.6 6.7 7.3 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.4 8.2 0.0 49.3 49.8 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.4 8.0 -0.1 46.5 47.5 6.9 7.6 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.1 6.3 -0.2 45.5 46.7 6.7 7.3 7.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.5 7.0 -0.2 44.8 46.0 7.0 7.6 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.5 5.2 0.1 53.8 52.3 5.9 6.4 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.9 7.7 -0.2 43.9 45.1 7.3 8.1 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.2 6.5 0.0 50.8 50.4 5.8 6.2 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.4 3.8 -0.1 45.9 47.0 3.9 4.5 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.0 8.5 -0.1 47.5 48.2 7.4 8.1 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------