***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 16.9 17.7 17.1 0.9 63.5 60.9 15.0 16.5 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 16.6 17.6 17.1 1.1 65.2 62.4 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 16.6 17.5 17.2 1.0 63.8 61.3 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 9.6 10.6 15.1 1.1 65.9 62.8 7.7 9.2 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 16.9 17.7 15.7 0.9 62.3 59.9 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 15.8 15.8 13.3 0.4 55.6 54.1 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 16.5 17.2 16.9 0.9 62.6 60.1 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 4.5 5.0 13.8 0.7 59.1 57.3 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 16.5 17.3 16.6 1.0 63.2 60.7 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 16.4 17.0 14.9 0.8 60.5 58.5 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 16.7 17.3 15.4 0.8 60.7 58.5 14.9 16.4 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 15.7 16.2 14.6 0.7 58.8 57.0 14.0 15.5 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 16.8 16.8 14.4 0.4 55.0 53.6 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 16.5 17.4 16.4 1.2 65.4 62.9 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 17.9 18.1 16.7 1.3 69.3 65.9 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 17.0 17.4 15.0 0.6 58.4 56.5 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 16.1 16.9 16.8 1.0 64.3 61.7 14.5 15.8 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 16.0 16.6 14.2 0.9 60.4 58.6 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 16.4 17.4 17.2 1.1 66.0 63.2 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 10.7 11.1 11.8 0.6 57.4 56.1 9.0 10.5 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 16.7 17.5 17.2 1.0 63.5 60.9 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 16.6 17.6 16.9 1.1 66.3 63.6 15.0 16.3 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 16.6 17.6 17.2 1.2 65.9 63.3 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 16.4 17.2 16.1 1.1 63.0 60.8 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 16.7 17.5 15.9 0.9 63.4 60.7 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 16.1 16.1 13.5 0.3 55.0 53.6 14.4 15.7 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 16.5 17.2 16.4 0.8 61.9 59.4 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 17.0 17.8 15.8 1.1 66.4 63.4 15.3 16.6 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 10.6 11.1 13.3 0.8 59.5 57.9 8.8 10.3 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 16.5 17.4 17.2 1.0 64.8 62.0 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------