***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 17.4 20.1 18.8 0.8 61.1 57.0 17.8 19.2 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 17.5 20.2 18.6 0.7 60.4 57.2 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 17.4 20.5 19.0 0.9 62.9 58.6 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 10.0 13.1 17.4 1.0 64.4 57.9 10.4 11.9 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 17.6 20.8 17.7 1.0 64.2 58.4 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 16.3 19.3 16.0 1.2 66.7 59.8 16.6 17.9 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 17.2 19.5 18.5 0.6 58.4 55.9 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 8.9 8.4 16.3 1.1 64.6 59.5 5.7 7.2 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 20.7 20.2 18.1 1.1 64.1 58.8 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 20.8 20.3 17.0 1.1 64.5 59.4 17.6 19.1 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 20.9 20.4 17.2 1.0 64.0 58.7 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 20.1 19.6 17.0 1.0 64.5 59.2 16.8 18.3 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 20.9 20.4 16.5 1.0 64.2 58.9 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 21.3 20.6 17.9 1.0 63.6 59.8 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 17.2 20.1 17.6 1.0 64.8 57.8 17.6 18.9 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 21.4 20.9 17.0 1.0 64.3 58.6 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 16.8 19.2 18.3 0.5 57.8 55.6 17.1 18.5 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 20.5 20.0 16.5 1.2 64.9 60.1 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 20.7 20.1 18.8 0.8 61.9 58.3 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 15.6 15.0 14.2 1.0 64.2 59.6 12.2 13.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 17.3 20.4 18.7 1.0 63.5 58.4 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 21.1 20.3 18.4 0.7 60.1 57.1 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 21.3 20.6 18.8 0.9 62.8 59.1 17.9 19.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 20.9 20.3 17.9 1.1 64.0 59.8 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 17.4 20.2 17.5 0.8 62.0 57.0 17.8 19.2 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 20.1 19.8 16.2 1.0 65.4 59.4 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 17.2 19.8 18.0 0.7 60.2 56.4 17.6 19.0 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 17.4 20.3 17.6 1.1 65.1 58.2 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 15.6 15.1 15.5 1.1 64.8 60.2 12.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 17.2 20.0 18.8 0.7 61.0 57.5 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------