***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.4 20.3 0.8 59.3 57.0 20.5 21.7 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 21.9 22.0 20.1 0.6 56.9 55.2 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 21.9 22.1 20.4 0.7 58.6 56.5 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.3 18.9 1.1 62.8 59.2 12.4 14.0 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 22.0 22.5 19.1 1.0 61.8 58.7 20.0 21.5 22.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 21.6 21.2 17.8 1.5 67.5 62.6 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.6 20.0 0.6 56.8 55.2 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.0 17.9 1.1 62.5 59.3 7.2 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.9 19.5 0.9 60.4 57.7 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 21.4 21.8 18.5 1.0 61.2 58.3 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 21.6 22.1 18.8 1.1 62.8 59.6 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 20.8 21.3 18.7 1.1 63.3 59.8 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 22.8 22.3 18.3 1.3 64.9 60.9 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 21.7 21.7 19.0 0.5 55.4 53.8 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 21.7 22.3 19.1 1.1 63.9 59.8 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 23.2 22.7 18.7 1.2 64.3 60.6 19.9 21.4 22.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 21.2 21.1 19.7 0.4 55.1 53.8 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 20.9 21.2 17.9 0.9 60.0 57.4 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 21.5 21.6 20.2 0.6 56.9 55.1 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.3 15.9 1.0 61.6 58.3 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 21.8 22.1 20.0 0.8 59.7 57.2 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.6 19.7 0.4 54.3 52.8 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 21.8 21.8 20.1 0.5 56.2 54.6 19.8 21.3 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 21.3 21.4 19.1 0.7 58.1 56.0 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 21.7 22.0 19.0 0.9 60.5 57.7 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 21.9 21.5 18.1 1.3 65.9 61.1 18.5 20.0 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 21.5 21.8 19.6 0.8 59.6 57.1 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 21.8 22.5 19.2 1.1 63.7 59.8 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.1 17.0 0.9 59.7 57.1 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 21.7 21.8 20.3 0.6 57.9 55.9 19.7 21.1 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------