***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 22.8 21.0 20.0 -1.1 35.8 40.4 20.7 22.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 22.7 21.0 19.9 -1.0 36.7 40.8 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.8 21.1 20.0 -1.2 35.7 40.1 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 13.3 13.7 18.4 -1.1 35.4 39.9 13.5 14.9 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 22.8 21.0 18.4 -1.2 34.5 39.3 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 18.8 19.4 16.7 -1.1 35.8 40.2 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.3 20.7 19.9 -1.0 36.7 40.9 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.0 8.4 16.9 -1.3 33.7 38.7 8.3 9.8 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 20.1 20.4 18.7 -1.3 34.3 39.2 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 20.1 20.3 17.5 -1.3 34.0 38.9 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 20.2 20.5 17.9 -1.3 33.8 38.7 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 19.1 19.5 17.7 -1.3 33.3 38.3 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 20.0 20.4 17.3 -1.3 33.8 38.8 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.4 20.7 18.3 -1.4 33.8 38.5 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 20.4 21.0 18.7 -1.0 36.0 40.0 20.7 22.1 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 20.6 21.0 17.7 -1.3 34.1 38.9 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 21.9 20.3 19.6 -1.0 36.6 40.8 20.0 21.3 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 19.5 19.8 16.9 -1.3 34.6 39.3 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.2 20.5 19.9 -1.1 36.2 40.5 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 14.5 14.9 14.8 -1.3 34.9 39.5 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 22.5 20.7 19.5 -1.2 35.0 39.8 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.2 20.8 19.5 -1.1 35.7 40.0 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 20.4 20.8 19.7 -1.2 35.0 39.5 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 22.1 20.4 18.4 -1.3 34.6 39.2 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 20.4 20.8 18.5 -1.1 35.3 40.1 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 19.2 19.8 17.1 -1.2 34.5 39.0 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 22.4 20.7 19.2 -1.1 35.5 40.2 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 20.3 20.9 18.6 -1.1 35.5 39.8 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 14.3 14.8 15.9 -1.3 34.8 39.4 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 22.4 20.8 20.0 -1.1 36.5 40.7 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------