***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 5.3 4.6 8.2 48.1 26.3 26.2 6.1 10.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 4.7 5.1 8.6 53.2 32.2 30.8 5.2 8.4 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 8.0 7.7 8.5 49.4 27.3 27.2 9.1 13.9 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 8.4 7.4 7.1 35.2 16.7 17.4 12.6 18.4 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 5.6 4.4 8.2 40.9 18.6 19.5 8.4 14.0 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 5.8 5.0 8.9 43.9 20.0 21.1 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 4.0 4.2 9.1 55.2 31.7 30.1 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 13.8 12.0 9.8 48.6 23.2 24.0 15.8 23.2 32.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 6.0 4.6 9.1 47.5 24.3 24.7 6.8 12.2 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 8.7 7.2 10.3 50.1 23.7 24.6 9.8 15.3 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 5.8 4.0 7.9 41.5 19.6 20.5 7.5 13.3 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 7.1 6.0 8.1 44.4 22.6 23.0 8.5 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 7.4 5.8 7.8 39.4 18.1 19.0 10.0 15.5 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 10.8 11.4 11.0 55.5 33.1 31.6 11.4 16.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 4.4 2.5 5.5 28.0 12.1 13.3 7.3 12.2 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 4.7 3.2 7.0 36.2 16.8 17.7 7.3 13.3 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 4.0 4.8 9.1 56.8 34.8 32.4 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 8.5 7.9 11.9 56.5 28.7 29.0 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 5.2 5.2 8.3 51.0 30.9 29.9 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 6.3 5.7 11.4 50.4 23.7 24.4 7.6 11.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 7.3 6.5 8.4 46.3 25.3 25.5 8.4 13.4 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.7 5.2 9.0 56.8 35.4 33.3 4.8 8.4 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 6.3 6.2 8.5 49.9 31.3 30.3 6.6 10.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 9.4 9.2 10.9 55.6 30.4 30.0 10.0 15.4 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 4.7 4.1 9.1 42.8 19.4 20.2 7.6 13.3 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 5.5 4.8 8.2 43.9 23.0 23.2 7.1 11.5 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 5.3 4.8 9.5 48.8 24.7 24.9 6.9 12.1 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 4.2 3.1 6.1 31.5 14.7 15.6 7.2 12.0 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 12.7 13.0 12.2 56.6 29.5 29.5 14.0 20.0 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 4.4 4.6 8.5 51.3 30.2 29.4 5.1 8.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------