***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 6.6 9.8 10.1 67.8 46.1 39.2 6.5 10.9 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.0 6.4 10.2 70.3 46.9 40.2 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.8 7.9 10.0 69.4 45.9 38.4 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.7 11.0 11.6 63.7 45.0 38.6 8.0 12.3 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.5 6.7 11.2 64.7 43.5 37.7 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 4.4 7.9 15.5 73.3 46.6 38.1 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.4 6.6 10.2 68.4 46.1 39.5 4.2 7.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.4 14.1 12.2 71.7 47.4 40.3 9.4 15.2 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.2 6.3 11.2 67.0 44.1 38.2 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.9 8.7 12.4 69.2 45.4 39.4 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.0 7.6 10.4 69.5 46.7 39.4 4.9 8.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.2 8.1 10.7 74.3 49.5 40.4 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 5.3 9.0 12.6 73.4 48.5 39.2 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.4 8.1 13.0 71.9 46.3 39.5 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 3.8 6.2 10.9 62.1 43.1 36.6 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 4.3 7.6 11.5 71.1 47.5 39.4 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.0 8.1 10.6 71.2 48.0 40.9 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 7.0 10.4 14.1 70.7 44.9 39.2 7.1 12.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.1 7.1 10.1 70.8 46.5 39.1 3.9 8.1 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.7 8.6 15.9 72.4 45.6 39.9 5.7 9.7 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.8 6.8 10.3 67.9 45.4 38.4 4.8 7.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.4 7.3 10.9 73.3 48.2 41.0 4.4 7.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.7 6.1 10.2 70.4 45.1 37.5 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.0 7.8 12.5 71.2 45.5 38.6 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.7 7.0 12.3 65.0 42.4 36.9 5.1 9.0 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 2.9 6.7 11.8 75.5 48.6 38.3 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.1 7.8 11.8 67.0 44.8 38.9 5.0 9.2 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.0 6.3 11.2 64.1 45.2 38.4 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 8.5 12.6 14.8 71.3 44.8 39.4 8.9 14.5 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.8 7.4 10.1 70.1 46.7 40.0 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------