***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.9 6.1 12.4 109.6 66.7 50.6 2.0 3.6 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.4 7.3 14.5 121.4 69.8 53.9 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.1 12.2 103.7 64.2 51.7 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.9 11.9 14.2 101.7 64.3 50.0 4.9 8.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.9 13.3 98.8 63.2 50.5 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.8 10.4 18.5 106.7 65.0 52.5 3.2 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.5 8.2 15.6 128.8 72.2 55.9 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.0 14.8 15.4 97.3 60.5 49.7 6.9 11.3 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.1 13.4 99.8 63.4 51.2 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.6 16.3 101.1 62.8 51.6 3.5 6.1 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.4 7.3 13.0 99.0 62.8 50.5 2.1 4.6 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.6 9.7 11.9 96.3 61.3 48.8 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.5 11.3 14.5 103.2 64.2 51.5 4.5 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.0 15.4 97.8 60.8 50.8 5.2 8.4 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.3 10.1 15.0 108.8 66.5 49.3 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.0 8.3 13.0 96.7 62.2 49.9 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.1 7.7 14.8 123.6 70.8 55.5 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.6 18.0 97.9 60.4 50.3 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.7 13.2 112.8 67.1 52.8 2.6 4.3 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.8 19.1 92.4 56.8 48.4 4.4 7.4 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.7 7.2 11.9 103.4 64.9 51.5 2.6 4.7 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.5 7.2 13.1 109.9 66.3 53.5 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.6 12.4 105.0 64.5 52.0 3.2 5.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.7 15.1 97.5 60.8 50.4 3.5 6.4 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.7 14.6 101.6 63.9 50.2 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.3 9.2 12.6 100.4 63.1 50.6 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.4 6.6 14.6 106.6 65.6 51.1 2.4 4.2 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.8 8.8 13.9 100.7 64.0 49.5 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.4 12.7 18.4 95.8 59.1 49.9 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.7 5.6 13.9 117.0 68.4 53.0 1.7 3.1 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------