***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 16.1 18.7 15.8 149.3 77.4 56.8 5.4 9.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.0 19.8 16.9 152.0 78.0 59.7 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 15.5 19.6 16.2 155.5 78.8 59.6 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.6 25.9 16.3 127.4 72.0 55.1 7.6 13.6 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.3 18.1 16.0 127.3 72.1 55.8 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 23.1 22.5 20.4 122.6 70.3 58.0 6.6 12.1 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.9 19.1 16.8 146.7 76.8 58.5 5.8 9.5 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.3 36.2 18.8 124.1 71.0 56.9 11.4 20.1 31.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.4 19.8 16.3 128.7 72.5 56.1 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.9 20.6 19.5 125.0 71.3 56.7 6.5 11.4 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.0 19.5 15.7 129.4 72.6 55.9 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 15.0 21.4 15.4 135.8 74.2 57.8 7.6 12.1 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 16.8 18.5 18.0 138.5 75.0 59.0 5.7 9.6 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 27.3 21.7 142.0 75.8 59.2 6.3 12.0 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.2 15.0 15.7 130.5 72.9 54.5 4.6 8.0 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.2 17.7 16.2 130.8 73.0 57.1 5.9 9.7 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.6 24.8 16.5 143.1 76.0 59.7 6.1 11.2 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 21.7 24.9 23.2 135.9 74.3 59.5 6.9 12.4 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 22.6 29.1 16.9 155.5 78.7 60.4 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 19.6 20.5 23.8 128.1 72.1 58.1 7.7 12.2 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.8 19.4 15.0 142.5 75.8 56.4 5.8 9.7 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.8 19.6 16.9 144.9 76.4 60.2 6.8 10.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 20.6 25.8 17.5 155.0 78.6 60.0 6.8 11.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 21.3 26.6 20.8 146.5 76.9 60.1 6.0 11.5 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 20.1 22.6 18.4 137.7 74.8 57.5 6.2 11.0 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 15.1 17.9 15.8 142.3 75.9 60.3 5.4 9.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 18.7 21.2 18.3 143.1 76.0 57.7 6.7 11.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.6 15.4 15.3 122.0 70.6 53.7 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 26.3 29.6 23.8 136.8 74.5 59.7 7.6 13.9 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 16.4 21.3 16.7 154.0 78.4 59.2 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------