***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 33.3 41.4 46.6 86.3 45.3 41.7 34.3 44.2 55.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 25.6 36.5 50.2 93.3 51.1 45.5 25.8 35.8 47.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 36.5 45.4 47.0 87.2 45.4 41.4 37.8 48.5 60.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 52.6 58.1 49.0 75.6 35.6 34.1 56.5 66.9 78.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 35.6 40.2 48.8 76.8 36.0 35.0 38.2 49.4 61.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 59.0 45.7 63.3 83.9 41.5 40.7 39.6 52.1 65.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 28.0 39.6 51.7 94.1 51.6 46.0 28.5 38.7 50.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 76.6 83.1 56.2 82.4 40.0 39.4 78.3 90.4 102.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 36.4 40.7 49.9 80.7 38.8 37.6 37.0 48.3 61.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 44.2 49.6 58.4 83.2 40.9 39.7 44.6 55.6 67.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 37.1 42.3 47.0 79.2 38.9 37.8 38.5 50.0 62.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 46.0 50.5 46.1 81.8 41.1 40.0 47.0 54.7 62.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 59.6 49.9 52.9 82.6 41.4 40.9 45.5 54.9 65.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 43.3 54.6 61.1 88.6 45.4 41.0 45.2 58.3 73.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 32.8 36.5 47.0 74.8 34.6 33.1 35.7 45.6 56.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 37.0 42.7 47.6 77.8 38.0 37.4 39.6 50.5 62.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 48.2 42.7 51.0 93.7 51.7 47.0 29.6 41.3 54.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 45.8 54.9 67.3 87.8 44.3 42.0 47.4 58.9 71.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 34.0 44.6 48.6 91.2 49.2 43.9 34.5 45.2 57.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 42.1 46.0 70.2 83.7 38.0 38.1 43.5 52.3 61.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 36.4 41.2 45.5 82.3 41.2 38.8 37.3 45.5 54.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 44.9 39.8 49.9 91.8 49.6 45.6 30.4 40.1 50.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 33.2 42.8 48.5 89.0 47.3 42.0 34.6 44.4 55.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 43.5 54.4 59.3 88.6 45.3 41.8 45.6 57.8 70.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 38.6 43.6 54.3 80.0 37.7 36.4 40.7 51.9 64.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 35.1 40.8 48.4 83.5 41.6 41.1 35.8 45.8 56.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 35.4 43.4 54.2 85.3 43.0 40.4 37.1 48.1 60.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 34.7 38.7 46.5 73.5 34.5 33.2 37.8 46.8 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 58.5 68.6 69.1 87.7 43.2 41.3 60.2 74.6 90.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 27.5 37.4 49.2 91.7 49.6 44.2 28.0 37.6 48.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------