***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.9 7.5 -0.2 46.4 45.6 5.0 6.2 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 5.3 7.2 -0.2 46.7 45.9 4.4 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.5 7.8 0.0 51.0 49.1 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.3 4.7 -0.4 43.0 43.5 0.5 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.2 5.4 -0.5 39.8 40.7 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.5 3.3 2.6 -0.6 37.9 39.6 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.7 7.3 -0.1 47.5 46.6 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -3.7 -2.8 2.7 -0.6 39.0 40.8 -3.3 -2.0 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 4.0 4.7 5.3 -0.7 34.8 36.8 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.0 4.8 3.7 -0.5 38.9 40.5 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 3.8 4.4 4.6 -0.8 33.6 36.0 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.6 3.5 3.8 -0.5 40.8 41.7 3.0 4.1 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 3.3 4.0 3.7 -0.8 34.2 36.5 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.1 5.9 0.2 53.9 51.9 4.9 5.8 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 4.9 5.2 5.7 -1.0 30.2 32.9 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 4.1 4.9 4.4 -0.7 37.0 38.5 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.7 5.8 6.9 -0.2 47.1 46.2 4.9 6.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.6 3.6 -0.1 48.5 47.9 2.7 3.7 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.6 7.3 0.0 49.2 48.0 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.4 0.8 1.7 -0.1 47.3 48.2 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.1 5.0 6.6 -0.5 40.0 40.7 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.4 7.3 0.1 51.6 49.7 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.4 7.3 0.1 52.8 50.9 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.5 5.8 0.1 51.4 50.0 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.2 5.0 6.4 -0.6 39.4 40.2 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.2 4.2 3.1 -0.5 41.5 42.4 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.6 7.0 -0.4 43.4 43.3 4.8 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.4 4.1 5.0 -0.6 38.7 39.9 3.7 4.8 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.7 1.6 2.5 -0.3 43.6 44.7 0.9 2.1 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.8 7.6 -0.1 48.8 47.5 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------