***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.4 10.2 9.7 0.4 57.4 55.0 8.6 9.7 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.7 9.5 0.6 60.1 57.0 7.7 9.0 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 9.3 11.5 9.7 0.5 59.7 56.5 9.6 10.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.7 5.5 6.7 0.0 50.6 50.7 4.1 5.4 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.0 7.6 6.9 0.1 51.2 51.3 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.9 5.9 4.8 -0.1 48.3 49.4 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.7 9.5 0.6 60.5 57.3 7.8 9.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -0.5 0.9 4.7 -0.1 47.8 49.4 -0.1 1.1 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 6.7 8.3 7.2 0.2 53.5 52.6 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 6.8 8.2 5.5 0.0 50.9 51.1 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.4 7.6 6.2 0.0 49.3 50.1 6.7 7.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.8 5.8 5.4 -0.1 47.5 49.1 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.0 6.9 4.8 -0.2 45.5 47.1 6.3 7.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.5 9.1 7.2 0.3 55.3 53.6 7.7 8.8 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 7.6 8.9 8.0 0.1 52.7 51.5 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 7.3 8.5 5.6 -0.1 47.5 48.6 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.0 9.3 0.6 60.8 57.5 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 6.1 4.8 0.1 51.6 51.4 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.6 9.5 0.6 60.2 57.1 7.8 9.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.9 2.7 -0.1 47.7 49.5 2.0 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 6.7 8.5 8.6 0.3 54.8 53.4 7.0 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.2 9.2 0.7 62.0 58.3 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.4 9.2 9.3 0.5 60.0 57.1 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.9 8.4 7.0 0.3 55.7 53.9 7.1 8.1 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 7.3 9.0 8.0 0.2 52.8 52.1 7.5 8.8 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.1 6.9 4.6 -0.2 46.8 47.7 6.2 7.0 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 7.5 9.9 9.0 0.4 56.3 54.3 7.8 9.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.7 6.9 7.0 0.1 51.3 51.0 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.2 5.6 4.3 0.0 50.5 51.1 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.0 9.7 0.6 60.6 57.2 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------