***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 8.7 10.3 10.7 0.4 56.5 53.1 8.9 9.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 8.9 10.3 10.3 0.3 55.5 52.3 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.1 10.8 0.5 58.3 54.3 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.8 8.0 0.3 55.0 53.0 5.5 6.5 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.6 8.1 0.3 55.2 53.2 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.6 6.1 0.4 56.4 54.1 6.3 7.2 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.3 10.4 0.3 55.4 52.4 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.7 2.4 5.9 0.2 53.3 51.8 1.3 2.3 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.4 8.4 0.3 56.3 53.7 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.4 6.7 0.3 55.1 53.0 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.0 7.5 0.2 54.3 52.5 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.4 6.6 0.2 53.2 51.6 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.5 6.1 0.2 53.4 51.7 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.9 10.1 8.3 0.4 57.4 54.4 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.5 9.2 0.4 57.3 54.7 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 8.3 9.8 6.9 0.2 53.7 52.0 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 9.4 10.5 10.1 0.3 55.0 52.1 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.4 7.5 6.0 0.3 55.1 53.1 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.3 10.4 0.4 56.9 53.4 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.2 3.9 0.2 52.7 51.6 3.2 4.1 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.5 9.8 0.4 56.7 53.5 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.9 10.0 0.4 57.2 53.9 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.1 10.3 0.5 58.7 54.9 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.6 8.1 0.4 57.8 54.7 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 8.3 9.8 9.2 0.3 55.0 52.2 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.3 5.9 0.2 53.9 52.0 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 8.5 10.6 10.0 0.4 56.0 52.8 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.3 8.3 0.3 56.1 53.8 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 6.8 5.4 0.2 54.0 52.5 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.4 10.6 0.4 56.4 53.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------