***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.8 9.4 0.5 62.8 59.5 7.6 8.3 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 8.7 8.5 9.1 0.5 64.7 61.2 7.1 7.9 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 10.5 10.4 9.5 0.6 67.6 62.8 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.6 6.5 0.2 56.9 55.3 3.7 4.4 5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.8 6.9 0.2 57.1 55.7 5.9 6.5 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.7 4.6 0.2 55.8 54.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 8.7 8.5 9.1 0.5 64.5 61.1 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -0.5 0.4 4.6 0.2 56.1 55.3 -0.4 0.2 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.7 7.5 7.1 0.2 58.1 56.5 6.8 7.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.7 7.6 5.5 0.3 58.5 56.7 6.8 7.3 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.4 7.1 6.3 0.1 54.1 53.5 6.5 7.0 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.9 5.6 5.4 0.2 55.7 54.8 5.1 5.5 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.0 6.6 5.0 0.0 50.2 50.6 6.1 6.6 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 8.5 8.5 7.2 0.6 68.1 62.9 7.3 7.9 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 7.5 8.2 7.7 0.1 53.5 52.7 7.6 8.1 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 7.0 7.8 5.8 0.1 53.1 52.6 7.1 7.7 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 8.9 8.7 8.9 0.5 64.7 61.2 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 5.9 5.7 4.9 0.4 62.0 59.1 4.8 5.4 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 8.6 8.5 9.2 0.6 67.1 62.9 7.2 7.9 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 1.9 2.7 2.9 0.3 58.6 57.3 2.0 2.4 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.6 8.4 0.3 59.8 57.5 6.7 7.3 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 8.1 8.1 8.9 0.7 69.7 64.9 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 8.3 8.3 9.1 0.7 70.3 65.0 6.9 7.6 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 7.9 7.8 7.1 0.5 67.0 62.1 6.7 7.3 7.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.9 8.0 0.2 56.3 55.2 7.0 7.6 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.9 6.5 4.6 0.1 54.0 52.9 5.9 6.4 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.6 8.8 0.4 59.9 57.5 7.3 8.1 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.4 6.8 0.2 55.9 54.2 5.8 6.2 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 3.7 4.9 4.2 0.3 59.4 57.7 3.9 4.5 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.7 9.3 0.6 66.0 62.0 7.4 8.1 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------