***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 18.4 19.2 19.0 2.3 78.1 71.9 15.0 16.5 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 18.0 18.7 19.1 2.3 77.8 72.2 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 18.0 18.8 19.2 2.4 77.7 71.5 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 10.7 11.0 15.2 1.6 70.4 65.9 7.7 9.2 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 17.0 18.2 16.7 1.5 68.0 63.7 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 16.9 16.8 14.7 1.4 66.8 64.0 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 17.9 18.3 18.7 2.1 75.6 70.4 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 5.7 5.7 14.9 1.5 67.2 63.7 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 17.7 18.0 17.9 1.8 71.5 66.3 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 17.6 17.8 16.0 1.7 69.3 65.0 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 16.9 17.8 17.1 1.3 65.5 61.9 14.9 16.4 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 16.9 16.9 15.8 1.4 66.6 63.1 14.0 15.5 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 16.9 17.4 16.4 1.0 61.9 59.4 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 17.9 18.6 18.4 2.6 78.3 71.9 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 17.1 18.0 17.6 1.4 68.2 64.5 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 17.2 18.0 16.4 1.2 65.0 61.8 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 17.5 18.0 18.6 2.3 76.7 71.8 14.5 15.8 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 17.3 17.6 15.4 1.9 70.9 66.4 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 17.8 18.6 19.3 2.5 78.9 73.0 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.2 13.2 1.7 69.5 65.8 9.0 10.5 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 17.9 18.3 18.6 1.8 72.1 67.0 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 18.1 18.9 19.1 2.6 80.6 74.9 15.0 16.3 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 18.0 18.9 19.3 2.5 79.5 73.1 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 17.8 18.3 18.0 2.3 75.2 69.6 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 17.9 18.1 17.3 1.6 70.5 65.8 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.9 14.8 1.2 64.8 62.3 14.4 15.7 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 17.9 18.3 18.1 1.9 73.9 68.6 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 17.0 18.0 16.3 1.5 68.6 64.7 15.3 16.6 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.2 14.7 1.8 70.6 66.3 8.8 10.3 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 17.9 18.6 19.1 2.3 77.6 71.9 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------