***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 21.2 21.8 19.9 1.7 81.6 73.5 19.0 19.9 20.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 21.1 21.8 19.9 1.8 81.1 73.9 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 21.1 21.7 20.2 1.8 81.6 73.7 18.9 19.8 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.7 16.7 1.1 72.2 66.1 11.6 12.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 20.9 21.0 17.7 1.0 70.5 65.1 19.1 19.9 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 19.2 19.1 15.4 0.8 65.4 61.4 17.6 18.4 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 20.7 21.2 19.7 1.6 79.7 72.7 18.5 19.5 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 8.4 8.3 15.8 0.8 65.0 61.3 6.6 7.5 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 20.5 20.7 18.4 1.3 74.2 67.9 18.5 19.4 20.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 20.3 20.4 16.8 1.1 70.3 65.1 18.6 19.4 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 20.6 20.5 17.7 0.9 67.2 62.8 18.7 19.6 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 19.5 19.4 16.8 0.8 64.8 61.1 17.9 18.7 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 20.5 20.2 16.6 0.6 62.1 59.1 18.7 19.6 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 21.0 21.5 18.5 1.7 79.9 72.3 18.7 19.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 20.6 20.9 18.3 1.2 73.6 67.3 18.9 19.7 20.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 21.0 20.9 17.1 0.8 66.1 61.9 19.2 20.0 20.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 20.4 21.0 19.5 1.7 80.5 73.4 18.1 19.1 20.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 20.0 20.0 16.3 1.2 71.4 66.0 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 20.8 21.5 20.1 1.8 82.0 74.4 18.5 19.4 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 14.9 14.7 13.6 0.8 65.3 61.8 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 20.8 21.1 19.3 1.4 76.1 69.4 18.8 19.7 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 21.1 22.0 19.7 1.9 83.4 75.6 18.7 19.7 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 21.1 21.9 20.1 1.8 82.5 74.5 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 20.5 20.9 18.4 1.6 78.0 70.8 18.5 19.4 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 20.7 21.1 18.0 1.3 75.8 69.0 18.8 19.7 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 19.2 19.4 15.9 0.6 62.5 59.6 18.0 18.8 19.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 20.6 21.1 19.0 1.5 79.5 71.8 18.7 19.5 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 20.6 20.8 17.3 1.1 71.2 65.3 18.9 19.8 20.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 14.8 14.9 15.3 1.0 68.7 64.3 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 20.9 21.5 20.0 1.8 81.3 73.9 18.6 19.5 20.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------