***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 4.8 5.4 6.7 40.9 29.6 24.7 6.1 10.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 4.4 4.8 5.9 41.8 30.0 25.3 5.2 8.4 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 7.6 8.2 6.6 43.1 29.6 25.2 9.1 13.9 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 9.0 10.2 7.5 37.8 25.5 21.1 12.6 18.4 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 6.1 7.5 8.0 45.0 30.1 24.6 8.4 14.0 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 6.0 6.6 7.5 40.7 27.7 23.6 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 3.7 3.8 6.0 40.9 29.5 25.3 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 13.8 15.6 9.6 50.2 32.2 28.1 15.8 23.2 32.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 5.2 5.9 7.8 45.2 29.6 24.6 6.8 12.2 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 8.4 9.0 9.6 48.4 30.6 26.7 9.8 15.3 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 5.9 7.1 8.1 46.7 31.9 26.0 7.5 13.3 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 7.2 8.9 8.3 50.5 34.4 28.6 8.5 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 8.5 10.0 8.2 46.3 33.0 26.6 10.0 15.5 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 9.6 10.5 9.1 46.2 30.4 26.3 11.4 16.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 4.4 5.1 5.5 31.2 24.2 18.1 7.3 12.2 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 5.6 6.8 7.6 44.9 31.1 25.1 7.3 13.3 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 3.4 3.9 5.7 41.1 28.7 24.2 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 7.2 7.8 9.7 47.8 28.5 26.2 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 4.7 5.0 6.0 42.0 29.6 25.1 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 6.5 7.6 10.6 52.6 32.6 28.9 7.6 11.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 6.9 7.6 7.3 43.8 29.9 25.0 8.4 13.4 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 3.6 4.2 5.6 41.0 30.0 24.3 4.8 8.4 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 5.6 5.9 6.5 44.4 29.8 25.4 6.6 10.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 8.3 9.0 8.3 45.7 29.5 25.9 10.0 15.4 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 5.6 6.4 7.5 40.0 28.0 24.1 7.6 13.3 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 5.8 6.8 7.2 43.4 32.2 26.6 7.1 11.5 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 5.3 5.8 7.0 39.8 28.7 24.1 6.9 12.1 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 4.8 5.6 6.9 37.3 26.2 20.7 7.2 12.0 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 11.9 13.1 10.0 50.0 30.1 27.6 14.0 20.0 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 4.3 4.3 5.8 40.0 28.4 24.3 5.1 8.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------