***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.6 11.7 11.7 76.6 52.5 45.0 6.5 10.9 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.8 10.7 77.5 52.5 42.1 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.3 8.8 11.1 71.8 48.3 41.5 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 15.1 16.0 16.3 98.1 61.4 50.8 8.0 12.3 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.9 14.4 87.0 56.0 47.3 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.9 17.6 95.1 58.4 51.0 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.3 8.5 10.8 80.0 54.3 43.1 4.2 7.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.5 20.8 17.4 101.9 62.8 54.2 9.4 15.2 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.3 8.6 13.8 82.4 53.8 46.0 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.2 12.5 16.1 90.4 57.4 49.5 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.7 14.6 86.7 55.1 47.4 4.9 8.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.5 15.6 98.1 60.6 51.9 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.2 16.5 94.2 58.9 50.6 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.9 8.7 14.1 72.9 48.8 41.9 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.3 11.6 15.4 101.2 63.4 50.4 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.1 15.4 90.6 56.5 48.4 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.4 10.1 10.8 83.4 55.2 42.3 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.2 16.7 90.0 55.9 48.5 7.1 12.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.3 8.4 10.7 75.1 51.0 41.5 3.9 8.1 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.8 13.9 20.0 105.9 63.5 55.5 5.7 9.7 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.9 8.2 12.8 80.7 53.1 45.1 4.8 7.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 4.0 8.0 10.3 75.6 51.1 40.0 4.4 7.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.1 6.7 10.8 70.3 48.0 40.2 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.2 9.0 13.7 76.0 49.5 42.1 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.5 9.8 13.9 80.1 53.1 45.1 5.1 9.0 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.4 11.6 18.1 107.6 64.5 54.7 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.3 9.5 12.5 75.4 50.8 43.5 5.0 9.2 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.8 16.1 100.3 62.2 50.4 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.9 18.1 94.4 58.3 50.3 8.9 14.5 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.0 8.7 11.0 76.2 52.1 43.0 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------