***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.1 15.0 18.9 120.0 69.3 50.0 5.4 9.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.8 13.1 15.6 107.6 64.5 50.4 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.9 14.9 18.7 120.2 69.5 50.6 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.9 21.4 20.3 109.3 65.5 48.7 7.6 13.6 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.2 15.1 19.2 109.7 65.9 49.6 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.0 15.1 18.2 91.6 56.9 46.7 6.6 12.1 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 5.6 14.0 15.9 108.2 64.9 50.5 5.8 9.5 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.3 33.6 21.9 116.6 68.3 54.7 11.4 20.1 31.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 5.3 16.6 20.0 110.8 66.4 50.3 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 6.4 18.7 23.1 115.2 67.8 53.1 6.5 11.4 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.7 16.8 18.4 113.7 67.5 51.3 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.8 18.0 18.3 112.5 67.0 52.7 7.6 12.1 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.0 19.4 106.6 64.5 51.8 5.7 9.6 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.0 24.9 27.0 131.3 73.1 55.6 6.3 12.0 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.4 12.1 18.6 105.4 64.8 46.4 4.6 8.0 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.1 14.1 18.4 106.1 64.4 49.9 5.9 9.7 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 6.7 17.5 15.6 107.3 64.6 52.0 6.1 11.2 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.6 21.8 26.0 121.4 69.8 54.5 6.9 12.4 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 7.2 20.4 16.8 113.3 66.8 51.4 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.7 20.7 26.8 128.9 72.3 57.7 7.7 12.2 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.4 15.6 19.2 115.1 67.9 50.7 5.8 9.7 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.0 15.9 17.4 114.9 67.6 54.6 6.8 10.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 7.1 20.6 19.2 123.8 70.6 53.0 6.8 11.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.7 22.5 24.3 127.4 71.8 53.7 6.0 11.5 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 6.1 18.6 21.3 116.0 68.1 50.1 6.2 11.0 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.4 13.6 17.6 107.9 65.3 51.7 5.4 9.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 6.5 17.4 20.1 117.0 68.3 50.2 6.7 11.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.5 12.6 19.2 105.4 64.1 48.1 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.5 27.0 26.9 126.5 71.5 56.0 7.6 13.9 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.7 14.4 16.5 111.6 66.1 50.2 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------