***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 32.5 39.1 51.9 82.3 41.7 39.0 34.3 44.2 55.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 24.4 29.4 44.4 79.4 39.4 37.9 25.8 35.8 47.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 35.7 42.2 49.8 80.6 40.2 38.1 37.8 48.5 60.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 55.0 61.7 60.8 83.1 41.4 38.5 56.5 66.9 78.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 36.5 43.5 56.9 82.4 41.1 38.8 38.2 49.4 61.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 35.3 42.0 60.5 80.0 36.3 35.7 39.6 52.1 65.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 27.2 32.9 45.6 80.8 40.6 38.5 28.5 38.7 50.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 77.2 88.0 64.9 89.7 46.5 43.9 78.3 90.4 102.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 35.3 41.6 56.1 80.6 40.0 38.4 37.0 48.3 61.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 42.8 50.5 64.9 84.9 42.2 40.3 44.6 55.6 67.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 36.4 44.1 55.1 83.2 41.5 38.9 38.5 50.0 62.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 46.2 52.7 56.2 87.9 45.8 43.0 47.0 54.7 62.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 43.0 51.4 61.3 86.1 43.9 41.2 45.5 54.9 65.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 43.0 50.6 67.0 83.9 40.2 39.3 45.2 58.3 73.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 35.2 40.5 54.6 81.3 41.6 38.0 35.7 45.6 56.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 37.3 45.0 56.9 83.5 41.7 39.3 39.6 50.5 62.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 28.9 35.7 44.9 82.1 42.0 40.1 29.6 41.3 54.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 45.5 53.5 69.2 86.2 42.3 40.8 47.4 58.9 71.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 32.5 38.3 45.9 80.0 39.5 37.7 34.5 45.2 57.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 56.3 53.2 76.2 95.9 51.6 47.9 43.5 52.3 61.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 36.4 41.0 53.2 80.8 40.7 38.8 37.3 45.5 54.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 30.0 35.7 47.0 82.9 42.5 40.0 30.4 40.1 50.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 33.4 38.9 49.7 81.8 40.5 38.0 34.6 44.4 55.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 43.3 50.6 61.4 82.9 39.9 38.6 45.6 57.8 70.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 37.9 45.7 59.7 82.0 40.8 37.9 40.7 51.9 64.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 34.3 43.9 59.0 89.2 47.1 43.6 35.8 45.8 56.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 34.9 41.8 55.5 81.2 40.2 37.8 37.1 48.1 60.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 37.2 42.1 58.0 82.5 41.3 38.6 37.8 46.8 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 58.8 70.4 72.1 89.6 45.4 42.9 60.2 74.6 90.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 26.5 31.6 46.2 79.8 39.5 37.8 28.0 37.6 48.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------