***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 7.7 7.7 7.7 1.1 69.7 66.2 5.2 6.4 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 7.1 7.4 7.7 1.4 75.5 71.0 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 9.0 9.2 7.5 1.3 73.1 69.0 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 2.4 2.8 4.6 0.6 60.7 59.0 0.8 2.1 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 6.1 6.1 5.4 1.0 67.8 64.9 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.8 3.0 0.7 62.7 61.2 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 7.2 7.4 7.7 1.3 73.9 69.7 4.8 5.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 -0.6 -0.7 3.2 0.9 66.5 64.2 -3.2 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 6.8 6.8 5.8 0.9 68.4 65.0 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.6 4.0 0.8 66.1 63.4 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.4 4.6 0.8 64.7 62.5 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 5.2 5.0 3.7 0.8 64.9 63.0 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 6.1 6.0 3.7 0.8 66.1 63.6 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.4 5.9 1.2 73.6 68.5 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.7 6.8 5.8 0.4 58.6 57.4 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.8 4.3 0.8 65.6 63.2 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 7.3 7.6 7.4 1.4 74.9 70.6 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 4.8 4.7 3.1 0.9 66.6 63.7 2.8 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 7.2 7.5 7.7 1.4 76.3 71.5 4.7 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 2.2 2.1 1.1 1.0 66.9 64.9 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 6.9 7.0 7.0 1.0 69.3 66.1 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 6.6 7.1 7.6 1.5 78.6 73.4 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 6.7 7.0 7.2 1.3 75.3 70.7 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 6.6 6.8 5.5 1.1 71.5 67.3 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.6 6.2 0.8 63.7 61.6 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 5.9 5.8 3.5 0.9 66.9 64.0 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 7.4 7.3 6.9 0.9 66.1 63.3 4.9 6.1 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 5.1 5.5 5.2 0.6 61.7 60.0 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 3.4 3.4 2.6 0.9 67.2 64.6 1.1 2.2 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 7.4 7.5 7.9 1.4 74.6 70.2 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------